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April 30, 2008

The Woman Who Predicted The Mortgage Crisis Goes On The Record About The Future

A WVFC interview with Deutsche Bank's Karen Weaver
by Elaine Lafferty

We kept hearing about this woman named Karen Weaver, a top Wall Street analyst, who correctly sounded the alarm three years ago about the subprime mortgage crisis that has shaken the global economy (PDF) to its core. If only Wall Street and the banking industry had listened.

Today, Weaver is a Managing Director and the Global Head of Securitization Research, responsible for Deutsche Bank's research on securitized fixed-income products. She also manages Deutsche Bank Research-Americas, which has 300 professionals covering economics, debt and equity markets. Weaver joined Deutsche Bank from Credit Suisse First Boston in 2000. Prior to joining CSFB, she was a portfolio manager active in the ABS and MBS markets.

We asked Weaver -- who everybody listens to now -- for her thoughts on the economy and the future:

The interview continues here.

Lazard Hikes First Solar Target (FSLR)

There is an interesting call after First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) blew past earnings expectations and guidance today.  Lazard Capital Markets alternative energy analyst, Sanjay Shrestha, has reiterated his BUY rating on the stock.  But his target has been raised to $300.00 from $350.00.

Shrestha noted that its output translates to a throughput increase to 45MW per line, up from 44MW in 4Q07, suggesting capacity of 1,035MW by year-end 2009.

He believes that First Solar has $6.4 billion of total volume to be shipped under long-term contracts and it additionally has a 7.5MW order with SCE in Blythe, California, pending CPC.  Considering a factory cost ramp, efficiency/throughput gains, and lower cost/watt in Malaysia, Shrestha said he is raising 2008-2010 estimates.

This new $350 higher target represents a 40x multiple on recently raised 2010 estimates of $10.00, discounted back 15% for one year.

Interestingly enough, Shrestha's target of $350 is well under some other analyst targets out there.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

Biotech Business Daily (BTRX, BMRN, DSCO, ENDP, MNKD, MIPI, QSC, TECH)

Today almost feels like the "March of Biotech-inguins" because most of the movers were small companies you might otherwise miss.  Here were the big movers:

  • Barrier Therapeutics (NASDAQ: BTRX) ran way up after first quarter results reported yesterday showed a 207% increase in revenues from last year at $8.4 million, driven by growth in sales of Vusion and Xolegel. Shares closed up 18% at $2.29 on a 52-week range of $1.90 to $7.60.
  • BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: BMRN) showed a first quarter positive profit or $0.02 EPS on a net income of $1.7 million. Analysts expected losses of $0.05 EPS. Earnings were driven primarily by sales of enzyme replacement therapy Naglazyme. Shares closed up almost 8% at $36.46. The 52-week range is $15.99 to $41.00.
  • Discovery Labs (NASDAQ: DSCO) trading up in anticipation of FDA approval for lung surfactant, Surfaxin, a treatment for premature infants suffering from respiratory distress. The company communicated confidence that any regulatory concerns have been ironed out and this third FDA result will be positive. Shares rose 17% to $2.87. The 52-week range is $1.75 to $3.75.
  • Endo Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ENDP) settled a proxy battle with shareholder D.E. Shaw by nominating William Spangler to the board. They posted earnings today showing a net income of $59.53 and $0.44 EPS. Shares closed down 0.7% at $24.83. The 52-week range is $22.62 to $35.85.
  • Mannkind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD) up over 16% in anticipation of earnings release Monday. Shares up $0.37 at $2.60 at the close. The 52-week range is $1.86 to $14.71.
  • Molecular Insight Pharma (NASDAQ: MIPI) up almost 7% today on no news, although some just may be the thin volume and wide bid/ask spread. The oncology molecular imaging pharmaceutical company is sitting at $7.83 on a 52-week range of $5.66 to $12.95.
  • Questcor (AMEX: QSC) down despite posting strong first quarter results showing a positive net income of $6.5 million compared to a loss of $3.8 in first quarter 2007. The company also amended agreement Acthar distribution discount prices, positively impacting Questcor cash flows. Shares closed down 2.5% at $4.24. The 52-week range is $0.21 to $6.60.
  • Techne Corp. (NASDAQ: TECH) up after third quarter profit jumped 24% to $29.6 million or $0.76 EPS, beating estimates. Shares closed at $72.52, up 1%, on a 52-week range of $54.49 to $72.00.

Rachel Lopez
April 30, 2008

Cablevision (CVC) And Newsday: Another Round Of Muddled Thinking

Cablevision (CVC) is apparently looking at buying Long Island newspaper Newsday with Jared Kushner, a rich youngster who owns the tiny weekly The New York Observer. As far any anyone knows, the Observer has never made a dime.

The word from Reuters is that the bid would be above the $580 million already offered by NY Daily News owner Mort Zuckerman and Rupert Murdoch's News Corp (NWS), which owns the NY Post.

Cablevision's board has already shafted its shareholders. The controlling stockholders in CVC, the Dolans, made the rash offer of $36.26 for the company in mid-2007. That was just before cable companies began to report weaker earnings due to increasing competition from phone operators like Verizon (VZ). CVC now sells for $23,

There are no savings for Cablevision if it buys a newspaper. If it makes an offer in partnership with the Observer, the NY-based paper is so tiny that any cost cutting would be meaningless.

The reasons behind the NY Post and NY Daily News offers have some sense to them. By combining with another large daily paper which has overlapping geographic distribution, the chances of taking out tens of millions of dollars in costs a year are excellent.

Putting a cable company with a daily newspaper is like crossing a chicken with a polar bear. It just won't work out.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The 52-Week Low Club (LUM)(RAI)(UNH)(CLX)(GRMN)

Luminent (LUM) Company proposes to restructure. Shares down to $.24 from 52-week high of $10.78.

Reynolds American (RAI) Falling profit and lower guidance. Drops to $52.17 from 52-week high of $72.

International Paper (IP) Increased costs hurt earnings. Sells down to $25.81 from 52-week high of $41.57.

Unitedhealth Group (UNH) Healthcare sector still selling off. Dips to $32.50 from 52-week high of $59.46.

The Clorox Company (CLX) Moving down ahead of earnings. Falls to $52.86 from 52-week high of $68.36.

Garmin (GRMN) Profit misses estimates. Shares down to $38.75 from 52-week high of $125.68.

Douglas A. McIntyre

SIRIUS & XM.. Still Waiting, Extend Termination Dates (SIRI, XMSR)

XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) and SIRIUS Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) have just announced that both companies have agreed not to exercise their rights to terminate the proposed merger agreement based on today's date.  The companies are have agreed to further extend the merger agreement... "as necessary, for rolling two week periods unless either side notifies the other of its intention not to extend."

This pending merger remains subject to the approval from the FCC and satisfaction of all other applicable conditions. 

We've already received a nod from the DOJ back on March 24, 2008, so now we are just waiting for the FCC.  SIRIUS and XM have both  obtained stockholder approval for the pending merger, all the way back in November 2007.

Waiting for this merger decision from the FCC and all the lobbying pressuring it is starting to look the same as watching 5-year olds playing tee-ball.  You just know it is going to come down to 1 point, and the kids are out of control. 

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

FOMC Cuts... One & Done?? (DIA, SPY, QQQQ, TLT)

Today, Bernanke & Co at the FOMC gave us their rate decision.  The FOMC has decided to the Fed Funds Rate 0.25% to 2% and the Discount Rate by 0.25% to 2.25%.

As far as we were concerned, the language, tone, and general fed-speak is now more important to us than the actual rate move.

At 1:55 PM EST today, about 20 minutes before Fed-Time, the key ETF's for the market were as follows:

  • DIAMONDS Trust (AMEX: DIA) $129.27 (+1.09; +0.85%)
  • SPDRs (AMEX: SPY) $139.55 (+0.47; +0.34%)
  • PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ) $47.73 (+0.13; +0.27%) 
  • iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (NYSE: TLT) $92.56 (+0.11; +0.12%) 

We still believe the U.S. is in a recessionary environment despite a positive GDP number this morning, just like Warren Buffett noted this week.  The difference is that we now believe the dangers of the systematic implosion and major spreading of counterparty defaults have passed.

Here were some of the FOMC comments and some of our conjecture:

Continue reading "FOMC Cuts... One & Done?? (DIA, SPY, QQQQ, TLT)" »

Exxon Mobil Hikes Dividend... Confidence On Higher Oil Prices? (XOM)

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has just given another vote of confidence on higher oil prices, or so it would seem.  "BIG OIL," or dare we say "Standard Oil," has announced that it was boosting its quarterly dividend.  We have been critical about oil companies not paying enough out to shareholders to recognize the new climate for oil prices, and even speculated on the possibility of integrated oils hiking their dividends.

Now with the dividend going from $0.35 to $0.40 per quarter, and based on a $93.25 share price, this new dividend yield would come to 1.7%.  That might not exactly be a barb-burning dividend but it is a decent hike.  It was just a year ago that Exxon raised its dividend from $0.32 to $0.35, and only about 15 months before that the dividend had been $0.29.

Maybe the famed T. Boone Pickens was right.  Maybe yesterday's priced DO reflect $75 oil rather than $100 oil.

Exxon Mobil's 52-week trading range is $77.55 to $95.27.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

H-P Proves Theoretical Circuits, Theoretically (HPQ)

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) has announced that researchers from its own research facility in HP Labs have proven the existence of the theoretical "fourth fundamental circuit element" in electrical engineering.

H-P said that this advancement could make it possible "to develop computer systems that have memories that do not forget, do not need to be booted up, consume far less power and associate information in a manner similar to that of the human brain."

Nature has the full report. More data can be found at H-P's dedicated site.

Keep in mind that this is a mathematical model, not a working prototype.  It called it a  physical example of a "memristor," the blend of "memory resistor."

Interestingly enough, it was just in the late-1990's when we were all using this new thing called Pentium when we were reading about micro-computing and multi-core processors being mainstream.  In the early 1990's and late 1980's the promise was more desktop power than most supercomputers of the time, when many thought they'd never need a computer. They've supposedly been theorizing this since 1971. 

Theory and science fiction have a way of converging into modern technology... if you are patient enough.  All that matters here is this differential:  Will this be HAL? or will it be Milla Jovovich?

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

IPO FILING: Echo Global Logistics (ECHO)

Echo Global Logistics filed with the SEC for an IPO today. The filing shows a maximum aggregate offering of $100 million. They have applied to trade on the NASDAQ Global Market under the symbol “ECHO” and the underwriters for the transaction include Lehman Brothers, Citi, William Blair and Company, Barrington Research, Thomas Weisel Partners LLC, and Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

Echo is a leading business process outsourcing for transportation and logistics. Their technology platform, Evolved Transportation Manager, allows them to efficiently meet shipping needs and assist freight management. Their strategy to minimize shipping costs and maximize efficiency lies in identification and utilization of excess capacity. Since company began in 2005, their customer base and revenues have grown dramatically. In 2005 they generated revenues of $7.3 million and net income was a loss of $0.5 million. Serving over 4,600 clients in 2007, net income hit $1.7 million.

In 2006, according to Armstrong and Associates, only 17% of logistic expenditures in the United States were outsourced. Echo believes that this number will increase and the market will expand over the next several years, generating additional customers and revenues. 

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about previews for other IPO's, mergers, spin-offs, break-ups, special financings, and other special situations.

Rachel Lopez
April 30, 2008

Citigroup (C): Need To Raise Another $15 Billion?

Not everyone believes that Citigroup's (C) current stock sale of $4.5 billion will end the large bank's need for capital.

Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney thinks that ongoing problems at the firm will lead it to sell asset or need to raise another $10 billion to $15 billion according to Reuters.

On the face of it, that could dilute current Citi shareholders by another 12% or more. The news of the $4.5 billion has taken the stock down over 3% to $25.51.

If Whitney is right, Citi's stock is moving back under $20.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Discount & Drop, Yet Double Hull Trades Under Offer Price (DHT)

Double Hull Tankers (NYSE: DHT) priced its 8 million common share public offering at $10.50 per share Tuesday evening.  This was very fast compared to its filing date

After discounts and fees, the double hull tanker fleet operator will receive net proceeds of $79,478,360 and the proceeds are for general corporate purposes such as acquisitions of vessels and businesses, strategic alliances, reduction of outstanding borrowings, capital expenditures and working capital.  After the reaction, Double Hull's market cap is about $313 million before the effect of these shares.

Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS Investment Bank are joint book-running managers and Dahlman Rose & Company is co-manager for the offering. Underwriters have been granted 1.2 million common shares to purchase for over-allotments.

What is interesting is that this is also a decent share discounting considering the size and the use of funds.  Double Hull Tankers are not exactly in oversupply around the globe, and they are the new standard for transporting crude overseas. 

On Monday, before the filing, shares were around $12.00.  Yesterday shares fell to $10.50 ahead of the pricing.  Despite a $10.50 pricing, shares are down marginally at $10.41 after 90-minutes of trading.

Usually shares rise after a drop like this, despite the dilution.  The 52-week trading range is $9.32 to $18.79.  Would it be fair to refer to the reaction to this financing as... a tanker?

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about previews for other secondary offerings, mergers, spin-offs, break-ups, IPO's, special financings, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

This Morning in the Oil Patch.. Earnings Away! (NOV, HES, FSLR, BP, VLO)

This morning we have some key earnings from the likes of National-Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) and Hess Corporation (NYSE:HES), and it wouldn't be fair to pint out the solar earnings competition from First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR).  There was also a key analyst call on in BP plc (NYSE: BP) and Valero (NYSE: VLO).

National-Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) reported earnings of $397.6 million and $1.11 EPS for the first quarter of 2008, up from $275.9 million and $0.78 EPS for the same period last year. Revenues totaled $2.685 billion, up 24% from a year ago and 1% from the fourth quarter of 2007. Analyst estimates for the first quarter were $1.09 EPS on revenues of $2.73 billion.

NOV noted a 10% increase in its backlog for drilling and other capital equipment to $9.9 billion from $9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007. New orders during the quarter totaled $2 billion, reflecting increased demand for offshore drilling equipment. Operating profit rose more than 3% from a year ago, but dropped by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter, indicating that NOV is facing some of the same pricing pressure as others in the industry.

The company's stock, which has dropped about 8% since April 22nd when other oilfield services competitors reported poor performance, is actually back up in positive territory this morning.

Hess Corporation (NYSE:HES) also reported first quarter numbers, and they were predictably big. Earnings more than doubled from a year ago to $759 million on revenues of $10.72 billion, and $2.34 EPS vs. $1.17 a year ago. Analysts estimates averaged $2.02 EPS on revenues of $10.55. Virtually all the increase is attributable to a $32.54/b increase in the company's selling price of oil. Refining and marketing were off $85 million (84%). The company's stock is up more than $3.00 in pre-open trading.

Credit Suisse has made a coverage switch here of significance in the oil patch: BP plc (NYSE: BP) was raised to Outperform from Neutral, while Valero (NYSE: VLO) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Yesterday, after the close, oil magnate and billionaire came out on CNBC and said that the equities of energy companies reflect something more like $75 oil rather than $100 oil, which is his vernacular for gross under-priced for an environment where he thinks $100 +/- is the new norm.  Pickens also noted the great need to diversify into alternative energy methods as well.

Speaking of alternative energy, shares of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) are trading up 7% at $305.00, almost at the top of its $54.20 to $308.24 trading range over the last year.  The company posted $0.57 EPS and $196.9 million in revenues, versus estimates of $0.47 EPS and $183.6 million in revenues.  The solar leader beat earnings expectations and raised guidance to $975 million to $1.05 Billion in revenues (above its prior $900 to $950 million estimate).  It has also raised its annual production to a range of 420 to 460 megawatts from a prior range of 400 to 430 megawatts.  The company is also expecting a modest rise in Q2 revenues.

Paul Ausick
April 30, 2008

GDP: None Dare Call It Conspiracy

The reading for Q1-2008 GDP is out, and it's no real surprise that GDP managed to show a small gain of +0.6% on the advance and preliminary number.  Bloomberg had noted a +0.5% Q1 GDP reading as the median expectation, and apparently the range of estimates was -0.8% up to +1.5%.  Other sources had +0.6% as the consensus estimates.

With the deflator and adjusting for prices, the reading came in at +3.5%, down from +3.9% in Q4-2007 and up from +1.8% in Q1-2007.

Spending rose 1.0% in Q1, while Durable Goods were down 6.1%. Non-durable spending was -1.3% and services spending rose by 3.4%.  Spending contributed +0.68% and we saw inventories up again.  You don't want to look at the housing figures.

As far as the prior quarter, Q4-2007 saw a +0.6% rise.  many argued that this number was merely above the Zero mark because of inventory build-ups and because of some higher prices that were passed on internationally.

The numbers don't actually describe the term recession because there are not yet two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP.

Warren Buffett has already said its a recession for the man in the street, and we'll take his views over the National Bureau of Economic Research any day of the week.  By the time they say we are in a recession, we may actually be coming out of it.

None dare call it conspiracy.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

United & FTD In Odd Merger (UNTD, FTD)

There may be one of the stranger mergers out there today in Internet land, as United Online, Inc. (NASDAQ: UNTD) is acquiring FTD Group, Inc. (NYSE: FTD) in a merger valued at some $800 million.

FTD shareholders will receive $7.34 in cash, 0.4087 shares of United common stock per FTD share, and $3.31 principal amount of United Online in 13% senior secured notes due in 2013. This total consideration, before any share change in UNTD will equate to $15.08 (based upon $10.83 United share price.

This furthermore comes to an total consideration received of $456 million to FTD, composed of $222 million cash, 12.35 million shares of UNTD, and $100 million in the debt.  After payments and disbursements have been made, FTD holders will still own approximately 15% of the combined United Online.

To complicate things further, United Online may elect to increase the cash consideration payable to FTD's
stockholders by $2.81 in full substitution of the debt, so FTD stockholders could receive a total of $10.15 in cash and 0.4087 shares of United Online per FTD share.

We had featured United Online in our "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter, and one issue of our "Special Situation Investing Newsletter" featured United Online as one of teh small cap Internet stocks that could actually be rolled up by a larger player.

So far UNTD shares are up almost 8% pre-market on thin volume trading, and FTD shares are up almost 7% in pre-market trading; although the share volume was very thin.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about previews for other mergers, spin-offs, break-ups, IPO's, special financings, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the Special Situation Investing Newsletter for 247WallSt.com.

Garmin EPS Almost Bad GPS, But... (GRMN)

Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) posted first quarter earnings that were off the mark.  The GPS leader posted a profit gain of 6% to $147.8 million, or $0.69 EPS, on revenues of $663.8 million.  First Call had estimates at $0.75 EPS on $705.1 million.

The company generated $166 million in free cash flow during Q1-2008, and it ended with cash
and marketable securities balance of $1.2 billion. Overall gross margins remained stronger than expected as its automobile margins remained flat, marine gross margin rose by 9 points and outdoor/fitness and aviation remained stable.

This note from the release here shows a cautious company: While we are pleased with our strong performance in the first quarter, it is important to note that the global economic slowdown has impacted companies across the board.

Frankly, non of this should be a shock at all, at least not if there is anything similar to an efficient market theory where information manages to get priced in.  What is interesting is that estimates from Wall Street analysts haven't really come in that much, despite different waves of data signaling slower sales and despite a near-50% share price drop since the last few days of 2007.

Shares closed at $46.44 yesterday, and shares are down over 5.5% at $43.84 in pre-market trading.  The 52-week trading range is $42.01 to $125.68.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ANPI, BP, CBS, JRCC, WFR, SVVS, SNN, SOHU, KNOT, UA)

These are not the only analyst calls affecting shares today, but these are ten of the calls that we are focusing on this Wednesday morning:

  • Angiotech Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ANPI) raised to Outperform at RBC Capital Markets.
  • BP plc (NYSE: BP) raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • CBS (NYSE: CBS) downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia; Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
  • James River Coal (NYSE: JRCC) raised to Buy at UBS.
  • MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR) downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • SAVVIS (NASDAQ: SVVS) downgraded to Hold at Jefferies and downgraded to Equal-Weight at Lehman.
  • Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN) raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU) downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer.
  • The Knot, Inc. (NASDAQ: KNOT) raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Under Armour (NYSE: UA) downgraded to Hold at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

GM (GM) Knocks One Out

GM (GM) revised its outlook for US car sales in 2008 down to 15 million. But, results moved the shares up 5%.

GM revenue dropped less than 1% to $42.7 billion. Auto earnings before 2007 adjustments moved up slightly to $392 million.

But, the reported results for the first quarter of 2008 include unfavorable special items totaling $2.9 billion. The charges include $1.45 billion to record a non-cash partial impairment of our equity investment in GMAC.

GM North America revenue for the first quarter 2008 was $24.5 billion, compared to $28.1 billion in the year-ago period. The decline in GMNA first quarter revenue was significantly impacted by the lost production due to the American Axle strike.

GM Europe revenue was up 17 percent and adjusted earnings before tax improved by $137 million.

Adjusted earnings before tax in the GM Latin America region more than doubled in the first quarter of 2008, driven by continued strong market growth and gains in GM market share in the region

GM Asia-Pacific adjusted earnings before tax increased by 49 percent, driven by strong volume and improvements in material cost performance, which were partially offset by mix and pricing deterioration and increased structural costs incurred to support growth.

Now, about those strikes and that Adelphia investment.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Dubai Pressures Europe

Dubai has told the EU that it will not sign any pacts which restrict how and where it will invest in the region. It considers the request a form a discrimination.

To point a point on it, Dubai can refrain from investing in Europe if it cannot do so on reasonable terms.

The FT writes that the head of Dubai World, the nation's sovereign fund said “People who have money to invest, if they hear that somebody’s going to discriminate against them, they wouldn’t go [there]."

Douglas A. McIntyre

Europe Markets 4/30/2008 (BCS)(SAP)(ALU)

Markets in Europe were down modestly.

The FTSE fell .7% to 6,044. Barclays (BCS) was down 3.2% to 445.5.

The DAXX was off .4% to 6,859. BMW was down 2.1% to 34.30. SAP (SAP) was off 4.6% to 31.53

The CAC 40 fell .6% to 4,948. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) was off 7.8% to 4.16.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Should The Feds Do More For Housing

The Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation says that the government is not doing enough to help the housing market.

In a piece written for the FT by Sheila Bair, she argues that "The US should fight the housing crisis by using low-cost government loans to help borrowers pay down unaffordable mortgages".

"These loans, which would be interest-free for the first five years, would be used to pay down part of the existing mortgage."

It may take more than that to bring the housing market back.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU): How Does Pat Russo Keep Her Job?

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) hit the market with more bad news. For the quarter ended March 31, the company reported a net loss of €181 million, compared with an €8 million loss a year earlier.

Worse, the company said that there are more bad times coming.

According to The Wall Street Journal the company "expects revenue to fall 2% to 5% in 2008 due to the weak dollar and potential lower spending by operators." ALU now losses more money and downgrades it forecasts every quarter.

How does CEO Pat Russo keep her job?

Douglas A. McIntyre

Microsoft (MSFT): A Few Dollars For The Yahooligans

Microsoft (MSFT) may decide to pay $1.5 billion in payments to retain key employees at Yahoo!. (YHOO).

According to Reuters "The $1.5 billion figure was discussed in a communication between the general counsels of Microsoft and Yahoo."

No wonder Redmond does not want to raise its bid.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Will Countrywide's (CFC) Goon Squad Go To The Gallows?

The FBI appears to have uncovered some fraud in lending practices at Countrywide (CFC) and now the question is whether management knew. As Captain Renault said in a scene in Casablanca "I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here." Of course, he owned part of the casino.

According to The Wall Street Journal the Feds have "turning up evidence that sales executives at the company deliberately overlooked inflated income figures for many borrowers." Some loans were made without income verification or tax returns. Worse, in other cases sales people inflated the income numbers from certain borrowers to help close the deals. Of course the sales people were getting a piece of the action. Who can blame them?

The first problem that CFC has is that making loans based on false data is usually frowned upon. Not disclosing the practice and its potential impact on earnings is also something about which the government takes a dim view.

The most intriguing question now if whether there is evidence to be had that the people in the corner offices at CountryWide knew what was going on. Were they so many Nixons covering their trails?

Mozilo and his thugs must have known something was up. They did not build the largest mortgage bank in the US by being idiots.

Bank of America (BAC), which is about to buy Countrywide, is going to get more than its hands dirty because of the transaction. The web of bad, and perhaps illegal, practices at CFC gets worse by the day. B of A. would be best to sneak out a side door.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Citigroup (C): A Promise Broken

The promise from Wall St. firms was implied, not spoken. The heads of operations like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Merrill Lynch (MER) said that the worst was probably over in the credit markets. It was OK for mortgage companies like Washington Mutual (WM) to raise money, but the big banks and brokerages could get by with better risk management and through selling some assets.

Merrill sold some bonds recently to put a tiny amount of meat on its balance sheet. The move almost went without notice.

That was not true when Citigroup (C) said it would sell $3 billion in new equity. As The Wall Street Journal points out "The move comes barely a week after the New York bank raised $6 billion in the credit markets." With Citi's market cap down to $138 billion all this fund-raising is costing current shareholder a bunch.

Raising capital not only implies that things have been bad; it indicates that things could get worse. Citi is saying, without any subtlety, that it does not have any confidence in a short-term recovery and that the next few quarters will bring more write-offs.

Astute investors will be keeping their eyes on the rest of the money center banks and large brokers. If two or three more have to go into the capital markets for cash, it is time to run for the hills.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Starbucks (SBUX): New Drinks For Coffee Haters

In a sign of self-loathing, Starbucks (SBUX) is turning to non-coffee drinks to rescue it. The coffee chain will begin selling smoothies and Italian iced drinks this summer. The firm hopes the new offerings will bring in additional customers and get old ones to visit more often.

The company claims a method to it madness. According to The Wall Street Journal "Starbucks says they're the first stage of a broader push into healthier drink and food offerings."

A year-and-a-half ago, Starbucks founder and now CEO Howard Schultz sent a memo to his management saying that the chain was getting away from its quaint coffee store roots. He wanted customers to smell that fresh-brewed Java when they came though the door and see the merriment among the other customers who were so happy to be there.

Instead, now Starbucks sells dozens of drinks, food, music, DVDs, WiFi, coffee makers, and washer-drier sets.

Adding goofy new fruit drinks to the Starbucks menu will not do anything to bring in enough customers to offset declines. It is simply a portent that the chain has lost its way.

Douglas A. McIntyre

No Fed Rate Cut

In what may be the last great act of his presidency, George Bush is sending many Americans tax rebates. The checks began going out this week. Some households may get as much as $1,200.

What is not clear is how many citizens will go out and buy a new washer-dryer set and how many will simply stuff the money into their mattresses. One would cause inflation, while the other would only serve to hoard money as many families are beginning to hoard food.

The Fed has several reasons not to cut rates again.

First among those may be that inflation is rising much faster than government figures would show, at least for the goods and services that count most. Gas will probably hit $4 this summer. A bagel could cost $10. The price of corn is up 23% this year.

The governors at the central bank have also become concerned, quite rightly, that banks are passing none of the Fed's cuts on to consumers or businesses. Mortgages are only given to the most credit-worthy. Financial institution would rather keep cheap money to help build reserves against the next set of write-downs which are likely to come in Q2. Many soothsayers claim that banks are out of the woods. Their stock prices and the worsening housing crisis would portend otherwise.

The cost of money for the man in the street is high and may go higher.

There are almost no reasons for the Fed to cut rates again now and plenty of reasons for it to stand pat. If Bush and Congress are right, they have done something to stimulate the economy. Doing two things at once as the price of everything from Cheerios to bug spray is going up does not increase the chance of inflation.

Inflation is already here. Fighting it has become the new priority

Douglas A. McIntyre

Media Digest 4/30/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTime, FT, Bloomberg

According to Reuters, the Fed will probably cut rates and them pause for some time

Reuters writes that senior financiers see the current economic situation as a recession on Main Street and  depression on Wall St.

Reuters writes that Microsoft (MSFT) may spend as much as $1.5 billion to retain Yahoo! (YHOO) employees.

Reuters wrtes that Rockefeller family members are pushing for governance changes at Exxon (XOM).

The Wall Street Journal writes that an investigation of Countrywide (CFC) is turning up information showing sale people overlooked inflated income from borrowers.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Iraq may have a $70 billion wind-fall from higher oil prices.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Starbucks (SBUX) will unveil two new drink lines.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Citigroup (C) will sell $3 billion in new stock.

The Wall Stree Journal writes that GM (GM) now faces more obstacles than Ford (F) does.

The New York Times writes that farmers are facing a shortage in fertilizer

The FT writes that one senior bank regulator says the US should fight the housing crisis by using low-cost government loans to help borrowers pay down unaffordable mortgages.

The FT reports that the Treasury is seeking broader powers for the Fed.

The FT reports that Dubai has warned the EU over restricting investments by sovereign funds.

Bloomberg reports that Siemens (SI) profits dropped 68%.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Asia Markets 4/30/2008 (SNP)(HMC)

Markets in Asia were mixed.

The Nikkei fell .3% to 13,450. Dentsu fell 4.4% to 239000. Honda (HMC) fell 3.8% to 3300.

The Hang Seng fell .3% to 25,836. China Netcom (CN) fell 2.7% to 23.5. China Petroleum (SNP) rose 2.9% to 8.46.

The Shanghai Composite rose 4.8% to 3,693.

Data from Reuters

Douglas A. McIntyre

April 29, 2008

Yes, We Have No Bananas: Did Chiquita (CQB) and Del-Monte (FDP) Pick-Pocket Wal-Mart (WMT)?

Fresh Del-Monte (FDP) came out with some pretty strong earnings today. Income climbed to $63.6 million, or $1 per share, compared with $51.6 million, or 89 cents per share a year ago. Much of the improvement was due to “higher banana selling prices: industrywide shortages due to bad weather in Central America.”

Most of those higher prices appear to have been passed along to retailers like Wal-Mart (WMT) and Kroger (KR). The quarterly numbers certainly don’t indicate that Del-Monte ate the increase.

But, was the reason for price increases the weather or was it Russian buyers moving into the market to import more fruit to their country? Four Russian companies including JFC and Sunway Group began aggressive bidding on bananas last fall. Between then and January the bid on a box of Ecuadorian bananas went from a range of $6 to $7 to a $13 to $14 range.

Much of the banana supply taken out of Ecuador by Dole and Del Monte is based on fixed annual contracts. Chiquita (CQB), on the other hand, buys in the spot market and ran into real trouble.

The weather must not have been all that bad. On April 21 there were news reports that banana exports out of Ecuador were rising. That usually works against higher prices. About the same time there was a report that the country’s growers were dumping bananas onto the market because of falling demand and a shortage of reefer capacity.

None of that prevented Chiquita’s president, Brian Kocher, from writing the company’s retail customers in February saying that flooding in Ecuador had cut down the company’s supply of bananas. Chiquita said it was applying the Force Majeure section of its contract and raising the price per box by $2.00.  The flooding was an ‘act of God.” The Russian buyers must not have fallen under that rubric.

The Chiquita letter went on to mention weather problems in countries in the Caribbean which also export the fruit. However, the company did not mention that most of that supply has gone to Europe for many years.

There is certainly some evidence that the banana market was not in as much trouble as Chiquita was saying. It passed the $2 per box fee on to retailers like Wal-Mart and Kroger nonetheless. Since about 14 million boxes of bananas come into the US each month, the amount of cost being passed on to retailers or consumers is fairly large

.
Chiquita’s costs break down this way: pricing of 40 lb.box of bananas on the East Coast of $6.50 fruit on the boat price plus $4.80 surcharge plus $2.00 force majeure or approx. $13.30 per box. The letter from Mr. Kocher was worth a lot of money to Chiquita.

Dole sent out a similar letter at about the same time. It added a Force Majeure charge of $1.89. Del Monte’s Force Majeure price was $1.94.

It is clear from the Del Monte earnings that the company is making much more money than it did last year. As the cost of bananas went up, they passed that along to their retailers. But, the reasons given in their earnings release many not be the entire story.

It may have been Russians and not an “act of God” that pushed prices up. That extra $2 a box will be a nice bonus for earnings.

Yes, we have no bananas. We have no bananas today.

Douglas A. McIntyre

SPAC Dissolving: Shanghai Sentry Acquisition Corp.

Today, we have seen what may be one of the few special purpose acquisition companies, or SPAC's, see a return of capital with a proposed deal voted down by shareholders.

Shanghai Sentry Acquisition Corp. (AMEX: SHA) just announced today that its annual and extraordinary meeting of shareholders was held and shareholders have voted down its proposed acquisition of Asia Leader Investments Limited.

Under the terms of the charter, the company is not permitted to pursue any other transactions and will shortly begin the process of liquidating and dissolving itself in accordance with the charter.  Applicable laws will result in the amount held in its trust account (together with interest) will be returned to the public shareholders.  No payments will be made in respect of the outstanding warrants or to any of its initial shareholders in the initial public offering. 

This company was formed in April 2006 and it raised $115 million through an initial public offering.  Back in February, this company terminated one acquisition to pursue the other and this vote had been delayed.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about previews for other mergers, spin-offs, break-ups, IPO's, special financings, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
April 29, 2008

AT&T (T) To Make Big Apple (AAPL) iPhone Price Cut

To keep customers coming in when the new Apple (AAPL) 3G iPhone comes out, probably in June. AT&T (T) will cut prices on the current model by as much as $200.

According to Fortune," AT&T is preparing to subsidize $200 of the cost of a new iPhone, bringing the price down to $199 for customers who sign two-year contracts."

Recent research from Changewave indicates that the lack of a 3G product is the primary reason that customers don't like the current iPhone.

Apple and AT&T could both run into inventory trouble. There is no guarantee that a large price cut will clear out the old 2.5G units.

Someone still may be left holding the bag.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Citi Taps The Shareholder Keg (C)

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) has come out tonight saying it will sell some $3 Billion in common stock.  Citi claims that after its last $6 Billion, this $3 Billion would take its Tier One capital ratio to 8.5% as of March 31, 2008.  Since when do companies get to retro-act dates like that?   

The company is underwriting its own offering.

While it is good that the company is able to raise funds this easily, and while the worst implosion fears at least appear behind us, this is just one more bit of further evidence that Citi and probably a dozen other of the behemoth former financial leaders are not totally out of the woods yet and that they might not all be entirely finished tapping the liquidity well again.

Citigroup already closed down 1.8% today at $26.32, and it is down about 3% at $25.50 in after-hours trading. 

Jon C. Ogg
April 29, 2008

T. Boone Pickens: Energy Equities Reflect $75 Oil Rather Than $100 Oil

CNBC just hosted another interview with oil magnate and billionaire T. Boone Pickens today after the close.   With recent prices of oil having been near $120 at the high, Pickens still thinks $125.00 is the oil target based on supply and demand.  With a constant of 85 million barrels per day, the prices have to go up.  As far his position he is long oil and natural gas, and he said those old short positions were covered long ago.

As far what are the answers are to price and depending upon foreign oil, Pickens said that a combination of coal, natural gas, wind, solar, biofuels and hydroelectric is the answer.  He also said we need to figure out how to move these around to fix the problem.

He thinks energy equities are not reflecting $100 oil, he thinks energy stock prices are reflecting $70 or $75 oil.  If Pickens has said this about oil and energy stocks before, it's been a while since he noted the price of energy specific stocks relative to energy prices.

Of these, natural gas is his first choice and wind is next for power generation.  He also said coal is our number one resource, but we need to get the coal cleaner.

As far as whether or not investors have missed the big move, Pickens said investors haven't missed the big move... particularly in natural gas.

Jon C. Ogg
April 29, 2008

The 52-Week Low Club (GIL)(ENR)(SUN)(TRID)(TUNE)(UNH)

Gildan Activewear (GIL) Company cuts guidance. Drops to $23.75 from 52-week high of $46.47.

Energizer (ENR) Profit falls almost 9%. Sells off to $71.25 from 52-week high of $119.60.

Sunoco (SUN) Broker downgrade. Falls to $45.85 from 52-week high of $86.40.

Unitedhealth Group (UNH) Healthcare down as sector. Off to $32.94 from 52-week high of $59.46.

Trident Microsystems (TRID) Poor quarterly outlook. Sells down to $4.18 from 52-week high of $21.80.

Microtune Inc (TUNE) Revenue miss and broker downgrade. Drops to $3.20 from 52-week high of $6.88.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Take-Two's GTA4 Retail Checks.... Maybe Take-Two Can Defend Against EA (TTWO, ERTS, GME, BBY)

We at 247WallSt.com have made calls doing our own checks to see just how the new blockbuster mega-hit Grand Theft Auto 4 video game from take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is selling at some of video game dedicated stores.  Figures that have been thrown around for the first week are $400 million, and if you do a Google search under "GTA4 $400M" you'll see how many are running this figure.

As Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) tries to defend itself against a takeover (or to get a higher price) from Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), we wanted to see just how well this game could do.  This is being sold through thousands of stores and many of the locations are completely sold out.  Only a few acted like they had an oversupply of games.  Literally many of the larger stores were stocked with games for those who did not pre-order, but those supplies were being eaten through quickly.  This is also before school and work ended for the bulk of the gaming population, so that's another catch.

We decided to run a store check the opening morning at store locations for GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), and even the new entrant called Play N Trade.  It goes quite simply like this, the larger the store the harder it is to round up someone that can or will give you an answer.  As well as this game is selling, and with a record breaking sales projection because of the dual-console platform launch, it's hard to imagine that the company is just going to fold up its tent in defending itself.  If Electronic Arts wants the video game maker, they are trying to buy a company that will have a remarkably improved sales position compared to when the bid was first launched.  The opposite side of the argument is that one title might not make a difference in a decade long time frame.

Many did well in the midnight sales, and here are just a handful of the comments that the employees at the stores said from each store listed.  Please note that while these are in quotes, they are in context but this was the general comment of what we were told at each individual store:

Continue reading "Take-Two's GTA4 Retail Checks.... Maybe Take-Two Can Defend Against EA (TTWO, ERTS, GME, BBY)" »

Survey Shows No 3G Apple (AAPL) iPhone Hurts Product's Perception

ChangeWave Research recently ran a survey about what customers like and disliked about the Apple (AAPL) iPhone and Research-In-Motion (RIMM) Blackberry. At the top of the dislikes among iPhone customers was the lack of 3G capacity. According to the poll "In terms of dislikes, there is no doubt about what iPhone owners hate most. It’s the speed of the AT&T (T) EDGE network."

It is still an open question about when Apple and AT&T (T) will have that fixed. It would argue that iPhone sales could move up sharply when a 3G product comes around.

What iPhone owners liked the most was the "seamless integration of its phone, iPod and Internet browser."

Over at RIMM the feature "BlackBerry users like best is its exceptional access to email." No surprise there.

The survey covered 864 smartphone owners.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Secondary Takes Air From Titan's Sails (TITN)

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) had been one of the best performing IPO's since the end of 2007.  The owner and operator of full service agricultural and construction equipment stores in North America.  As you can imagine, the ties to agriculture have made this one a winner.

Monday, the company reported fourth quarter and fiscal results. Revenue increased by 61% from $84.0 million a year ago to $135 million this quarter. They posted a net income of $270,000, or $0.02 EPS, meeting guidance. The company recently signed an agreement to acquire Quad Country Implement, a single store in Iowa. Titan raised its 2009 outlook for revenues and earnings per share. Excluding the stock offering filed today, the company would have 13.8 million shares outstanding, for guidance estimates of $0.87 to $0.92 EPS in 2009.

The company now plans to issue 3 million shares of common stock and selling stock holders are planning to sell an additional 500,000 shares. They intend to use the proceeds from the offering to fund potential acquisitions of CNH agricultural and construction equipment dealerships or for general corporate purposes. Additionally, they may invest the proceeds in short to medium term interest bearing securities. The interest will be used for the above purposes.

The company began trading publicly December 6, 2007 at $8.50 per share. The share price has risen to the lower twenties.

The underwriters for the offering are listed as Craig-Hallum Capital Group and Robert W. Baird and Co. They have been given the option to purchase 525,000 shares for over-allotments.

Shares for Titan are down almost 13% after 90-minutes of trading to $19.38 on heavy trading volume. The post-IPO range is $11.50 to $24.50.

Rachel Lopez
April 29, 2008

Andersons Does Small Roll-Up Acquisition (ANDE)

The Andersons, Inc. (NASDAQ: ANDE) is making a niche acquisition to fit into its fertilizer operations.  It has acquired Douglass Fertilizer & Chemical Inc. as an addition to its Plant Nutrient Group to diversify the group's product line offering.  It will also expand Andersons market "outside the traditional Midwest row crops and into Florida's rich specialty crops."

Douglass Fertilizer is based in Maitland, Florida and is primarily a specialty liquid nutrient manufacturer, retailer and wholesaler.

Douglass Fertilizer is a specialty liquid nutrient manufacturer and retailer primarily serving Florida and to a lesser degree the Southeastern U.S. and the Caribbean; and it generated revenues of $48 million in 2007.

As fas as a comparison, Andersons Inc. generated some $2.379 Billion in revenues during 2007.  Depending upon the expansion that the company can make with a deeper pocketbook, that's only about a 2% revenue bump. 

The Anderson's market cap is $843 million and with a $46.50 stock price is toward the higher-end of its $38.10 to $52.67 trading range over the last year.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about previews for other mergers, spin-offs, break-ups, IPO's, special financings, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
April 29, 2008

Genentech & Biogen-Idec Tank Rituxan Hopes on Lupus Treatment (DNA, BIIB)

Genentech, Inc. (NYSE:DNA) and Biogen Idec, Inc. (Nasdaq:BIIB) came out this morning with some disappointing news. 

The biotech giants have announced that a Phase II/III study of Rituxan for lupus has failed to meet its primary endpoint defined as the proportion of Rituxan treated patients who achieved a major clinical response or partial clinical response.

Unfortunately, this study results also failed to meet any of the six secondary endpoints.  Genentech and Biogen Idec said they will continue to analyze the study results and will submit the data for presentation at an upcoming medical meeting.

Based on the reaction, they can analyze all they want and it doesn't look like it will matter.  Right before the open, Genentech shares are down almost 5% to $69.70 and Biogen-Idec shares are down almost 5% at $61.50.

Jon C. Ogg
April 29, 2008

Valero Jumps Over Lowered Hurdles (VLO, BP, RDS, COP)

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) has reported 2008 first quarter income of $261 million, or $0.48 EPS, compared with income of $1.1 billion and $1.77 EPS for the first quarter of 2007. After VLO's March 24th earnings warning, analyst estimates had dropped to $0.29 EPS. Operating revenue for the quarter totaled $27.95 billion, well above estimates of $18.23 billion.

Valero attributed the drop to lower margins for refined products due to higher feedstock costs coupled with lower prices. According to the announcement, the cost for a barrel of WTI rose about $40/barrel, while the wholesale price of gasoline rose by only $34/barrel, a 59% drop in margin. Operating expenses also increased and refinery throughput decreased by about $138,000 b/d.

As we've already noted today, both BP plc (NYSE: BP) and Shell (NYSE: RDS) have reported big earnings and revenue increases for the first quarter of 2008. These increases did not come from the companies' refining operations. Earnings in Shell's Oil Products segment, which includes refining, are off 20% from a year ago; after adjusting for one-time gains and losses, BP's refining segment earnings are off by 61%. Last week, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) reported refining earnings were off by 54%. As with Valero, lower refining margin gets the blame.

And there's no question that refining margins are lower than in the past two years. But look at VLO's west coast operations as an example of what's happening. West coast crude is virtually all from Alaska's North Slope. VLO reported a cost of $96.62/b for crude and a margin of $7.89/b. That's about 8.2%, which is historically the average margin for refining operations. The fat profits of the past two years have raised expectations for refining margins. This quarter brings a dose of reality.

The company's stock is trading up about 1.4% at $53.70 before market open this morning; its 52-week trading range is $44.94 to $78.68.

Paul Ausick
April 29, 2008

Corning Sees Thru The Glass (GLW)

Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) has reported earnings that are so far pleasing Wall Street.  The LCD glass giant posted $0.64 EPS on a gain, and from operations it posted $0.44 EPS on revenues of $1.62 Billion.  First Call estimates were $0.42 EPS on $1.59 billion in revenues.  Gross margins were an all-time high of 52%.

The comments from the CFO should say it all: “Global demand for LCD televisions and laptop computers remains strong... We continue to closely monitor the U.S. retail market, but we have not seen any indication that the U.S. slowdown is impacting our LCD glass business.”

The company is also increasing its Cap-Ex spending for the year to $1.8 to $2 Billion to increase LCD capacity.  The company's raw guidance is $0.47 to $0.50 EPS on $1.71 to $1.75 Billion in revenues.  For 2008, the company is projecting free cash flow of at least $500 million

Next quarter estimates are $0.43 EPS on $1.67 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Dec-2008 are $1.75 EPS on $6.82 billion in revenues.

Shares are up 4% pre-market at $26.75, and the 52-week trading range is $20.04 to $27.25.

Jon C. Ogg
April 29, 2008

Under Armour, Under Its Targets (UA)

Under Armour (NYSE: UA) has reported earnings that look like more disappointment is on the way.  The sports apparel company posted $0.06 EPS on revenues of $157.3 million, although First Call had estimates at $0.03 EPS on $153.6 million in revenues.

While this is above plan on the EPS side of the equation, this is actually a 71% drop in net income.  Gross margin was 47.6%, down from 48.7% in the prior year.

The company is also backing 2008 revenue goals of $765 to $775 million, although estimates from First Call are $775.2 million.  Unfortunately, Under Armour is backing away from the 40 to 50 basis points improvement in margins and now sees a drop of 30 basis points in margins to about 50%.  Therefore net income expectations are now $103.5 to $104.5 million, down from prior targets of $108.5 to $110.5 million.

Shares are indicated down over 8% at $35.25 in thin volume pre-market trading; and the 52-week trading range is $25.39 to $73.40 (although lowest close was $28.01 and second lowest close was $31.29).

Jon C. Ogg
April 29, 2008

TheStreet.com Earnings Miss Estimates (TSCM)

TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) has reported earnings this morning.  Jim Cramer's offspring posted a 19% drop in net income to $2.4 million, or $0.07 EPS, but the company posted a 31% increase in revenues to $18.9 million.

First Call had estimates of $0.10 EPS on revenues of $19.95 million.

The initial drop in earnings is so far being tied to the launch of MainStreet.com and other online sites for finance, so it is always possible that the earnings may have some smaller items inside that could be deemed as "extraordinary" expenses.  The revenues were shown as a 18% gain in ads to $6 million, a $2.2 million interactive marketing services revenue from promotions.com (acquired in 2007), a 2% drop in subscription revenues of $8 million, and syndication & licensing rose 290% to $2.7 million (mainly from acquisition of Bankers Financial Products).

As of March 31, 2008, cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash stood at $82.2 million, with essentially no debt.  The company generated cash flow from operations of $4.9 million, and free cash flow totaled $3.5 million.

No trades have been seen pre-market, but shares closed at $9.48 yesterday; its 52-week trading range is $7.46 to $16.74.

Jon C. Ogg
April 29, 2008

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ACS, AEP, CPN, CVX, CTXS, F, POT, SYMC, THC, WB)

These are not all of the analyst calls, but these are ten of the top calls affecting shares this morning:

  • Affiliated Computer Services (NYSE: ACS) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Banc Of America.
  • Calpine (NYSE: CPN) cut to Hold at Jefferies & Co.
  • Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Ford (NYSE: F) Raised to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
  • Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) cut to Outperform from top Pick at RBC Capital Markets.
  • Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
  • Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Wachovia (NYSE: WB) Raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Jon C. Ogg
April 29, 2008

Good News For Dell (DELL) And HP (HPQ): PC Manufacturing Rising

The company which builds a large portion of the world's PCs is raising its estimates for the number of units it will build this year. Taiwan-based Quanta Computer, has raised its shipping targets for this year by a whopping 25 per cent, according to The Inquirer. Most of the firm's output is laptops, the hot part of the market.

The news is very good for Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), and not half bad for Microsoft (MSFT). Wall St. has assumed that a global recession could sharply cut sales of PCs. That would also hurt sales of Redmond's Vista operating system.

A little light at the end of the tunnel.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The Spring Season Comes To Big Oil, Can Excess Profit Taxes Be Far Behind?

BP (BP) and Shell produced out-sized profits for the first quarter. BP earnings rose to $7.62 billion from $4.66 billion. Over at Shell the numbers were up to $9.08 billion from $7.28 billion.

According to MarketWatch "BP sold its oil and gas for 52% more than it did in the year-earlier period, while Shell received 66% more." Fair enough. The companies took advantage of the market and the rising price of crude.

No