Skeptical Ahead of Microsoft's Analyst Meeting? (MSFT)

Today is the Financial Analyst Meeting for Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT).  This will run from 11:30 AM EST to 6:55 PM EST and it is open to the public.

The good news is that Microsoft just released earnings, many comments, and much on guidance for fiscal 2009 just last week.  The bad news is that the company just lost Kevin Johnson, the head of its online business, who is leaving to go run Juniper Networks.  As such, the company simultaneously announced a reorganization of its Platforms & Services Division (PSD) into two groups.  Windows/Windows Live and Online Services will become separate units.

The other bad news is that Microsoft shares fell more than 6% on last weeks earnings to $25.86.  Shares are still down from that post-earnings level because of the departure ahead of the meeting and now sit at $25.53 right before the analyst meeting.  The NASDAQ 100 is up about 1% since that Microsoft drop and the S&P 500 is up roughly the same.

A lot of the current bias is still due to sporadic weakness and strength from leaders to laggards throughout the tech and IT sectors. Despite our share price and record low valuation comments about Microsoft trading with a forward P/E ratio of 11.9, analysts are still skeptical.

If you wish to listen to the presentation today, you can see that here.

Jon C. Ogg
July 24, 2008