Apple (AAPL): March Quarter Expectations By Product

When it announced earnings for its last quarter Apple (AAPL) said it expects to earn $.90 to $1 per share on $7.6 billion to $8 billion in sales in the current quarter. Most analysts view that as light, but there are concerns that Apple’s sales of iPhones and Macs may falter.

For the quarter to be strong, Apple will probably have to sell four million iPhones and two million Macs, and 12 million iPods.

What are the chances of that?

In the first calendar quarter of 2008, Apple had revenue of $7.5 billion. During the period, the company sold 2.3 million Macs. So hitting a figure slightly below that number in the current quarter seems reasonable unless the recession simply destroys demand.

During first three months of last year, Apple sold 10.6 million iPods. iPod sales have slowed considerably as the product has started to reach a saturation point. iPod sales may come in light at 11 million, about a million units from where they have to be to make numbers.

That leaves the iPhone. If it does not sell well above most expectations, Apple could have a tough quarter. And, above expectations means closer to five million than four million.

Tough fence to climb.

Douglas A. McIntyre