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Cramer Tours Kremlin & Politburo (MTL, WBD, CTCM, SEDC, CETV, TRF, RSX)

This week on CNBC's MAD MONEY, Jim Cramer highlighted how Russia has many very promising prospects for emerging markets investors.  He gave many ways to play the country with ADR's of public Russian companies that trade in the U.S.  We only wanted to run a single summary since this was his fixed series going all week. Here were his picks this week for Russia:

• Cramer's Russian pick from Monday was in metals and mining pick of Mechel (NYSE: MTL) for steel demand being driven in Russia, China, and the Middle East.
• On Tuesday, Cramer picked Russian food producing giant Wimm-Bill-DANN (NYSE: WBD) with more than 30%of Russian dairy and as the number 2 and number 3 producer of baby foods and juice products.
• Cramer's pick on Wednesday, he gave his top pick that night as CTC Media (NASDAQ: CTCM), the fourth largest television broadcaster in Russia with 42 television stations and 30% longterm growth.
• On Thursday, Cramer picked Central European Distribution (NASDAQ: CEDC) as a vodka and liquor distributor in Russia and Eastern Europe.
• Friday's Cramer pick from Russia was Central European Media Enterprises Ltd. (NASDAQ: CETV), which invests in, develops, and operates national commercial television channels and stations in Central and Eastern Europe.

As far as going abroad, you've always heard 247WallSt.com talk about ETF's and Closed-End funds as trading vehicles that offer significant upside without as much individual portfolio risk due to a single company.  The longest running fund we used for investing in Russia is the Templeton Russia and East European Fund Inc. (NYSE: TRF) and the Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX).

If you have followed Cramer, he's given many similar country category picks over the course of a week, particularly in BRIC countries.  As far as another BRIC series Cramer has run for Brazil, Russia, India, and China:

• Here were his top Brazil picks.
• Here were his top 5 China picks.
• One time he did BRIC+ME, from BRIC plus the Middle East.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about special financings, secondary offerings, IPO's, M&A, and more previews for other special situations in various stages.

Jon C. Ogg
April 11, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Despite Share Sale Withdrawal, Mercadolibre Takes Heat (MELI)

Mercadolibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) is in a unique spot as it serves an online payment and e-commerce gateway and platform throughout much of Latin America.  The company's stock is also down close to 50% from the last 90+ days.

Last night, we saw that Mercadolibre (NASDAQ: MELI) had withdrawn its shelf registration statement that would have allowed insiders and the company to sell stock.  On this filing we asked if traders should buy as the company sells.  The reason for the shelf withdrawal was "...on the grounds that the withdrawal of the Registration Statement is in the best interests of the Company’s stockholders and consistent with the public interest and the protection of investors..."

We frequently discuss restructurings, activist investor trends, IPO's, back door plays into IPO's, SPAC's, spin-offs, and more on our open email distribution list.

Interestingly enough, shares are down over 1% today at $39.25 on a day that the U.S. markets are soaring higher.  You'd think this might take off some "added float pressure" normally seen, but the market isn't treating it that way right now.  This was also one of Jim Cramer's Latin American internet picks, although at significantly higher prices that went even higher before a monstrous pullback.

Jon C. Ogg
April 1, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and he can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Netease & Sina Set To Lead Chinese Web & Tech Stocks (NTES, SINA, BIDU)

Today we’ll get to see earnings out both Sina Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) and Netease.com Inc. (NASDAQ: NTES).

Sina Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) estimates for the Chinese online media company from First Call are $0.33 EPS on $69.14 million in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.26 EPS on $65.87 million in revenues. Estimates for fiscal 2008 are $1.49 EPS on $333.86 million in revenues.

Analysts have an average price target north of $55.00 on Sina.  Options trading looks a bit difficult to use for a prediction too, but the pricing-in range looks to be a move of $1.90 to $2.75 in either direction.  Sina's stock currently sits right under its 50 and 200-day moving averages, which are $43.07 and $44.12 respectively. 

Sina's shares were down less than 1% in early afternoon trading at $42.95, and Sina Corp.’s 52-week trading range is $31.19 to $59.27

Netease.com Inc. (NASDAQ: NTES) estimates for the Chinese interactive online and wireless company from First Call are $0.30 EPS on $75.9 million in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.30 EPS on $76.44 million in revenues. Estimates for fiscal 2008 are $1.24 EPS on $328.46 million in revenues.

Analysts have an average price target north of $22 on Netease.  Options are a bit of a guessing game, but it looks like traders are braced for a move of up to $0.50 to $0.68 in either direction.  The chart here may play some influence as well, as its shares have just recently gotten above the $18.15 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average is $18.75.            

Netease shares were down almost 2% in early afternoon trading at $18.34, and its 52-week trading range is $13.45 to $24.00.

Keep in mind that Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) has already reported earnings last week, and its shares are down roughly 4% since that report.  That being said, these two could still influence Chinese web and Chinese tech stocks that trade in the U.S. tomorrow.

Jon C. Ogg
February 20, 2008

Cramer's Grooming Tip: Get A Brazilian (PBR, RIO, AMX, GFA, MELI, GOL, EWZ)

This week on MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer had some international advice.  He wants portfolios to have Brazilians, but not the waxing type.  He has an oil play, a metals and mining play, a Latin American telecom play, and even a housing play.  Below are his picks and some of the stats for the stocks, and we followed up with some other recent Cramer picks for Brazil or Latin America and even threw in the more diversified ETF's:

• Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), or PetroBras, is Brazil's integrated oil play that has quietly become one of the larger oil stocks with a $244 Billion market cap. At $111+, it spent much of this last week roughly 10% off of highs, and its 52-week trading range is $41.38 to $119.16.  This is also one of Ken Heebner's long-term favorites in the sector.
• Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) is a diversified metals and mining company that operates globally, and its market cap is $146.6 Billion as of now.  At $30.35, its is nestled between its 52-week trading range of $15.57 to $38.32. 
• Another of his picks for Brazil was actually the Mexico-based America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: AMX) as the wireless and fixed telecom play for all of Latin America.  This is a Carlos Slim entity, and its market cap is now $102 Billion.  This had roughly 150 million subscribers throughout Latin America.  Not bad for a company whose origins go all the way back to 2000, wait only 8-years?  On a split-adjusted basis this is still up 10-fold since coming public in February 2001.
• The last Cramer pick in Brazil was homebuilder Gafisa S.A. (NYSE: GFA).  At $30.85 this market cap is only about $4 Billion, small for picks this week, and shares are nestled in a $20.67 to $42.74 range of the last year.  This one has barely been public for a year, and we had previously noted how this was Sam Zell's investment down in Brazil. Apparently Brazil's housing market growth is not yet having the same issues of over-inflated prices with poor overextended borrowers like in the U.S.  Hopefully they know to look north and now see what problems to avoid.

Another recent Cramer pick on Latin America was the individual and corporate e-commerce platform provider MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI), although this one was battered and deep fried in recent weeks and we recently questioned whether or not you should buy the stock since it tapped the secondary markets this soon.  It is based in Argentina, but also has 'clientes' in Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America.  In the past Cramer also noted GOL as the airline of choice for Brazil.

We know that Cramer would rather have a diversified portfolio of roughly five large stocks at any time rather than mutual funds, but there are many diversified ways to play the Brazilian stock market without having to choose one of the individual stocks.  If investors want to diversify via ETF's, there is always the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSE: EWZ).  It closed at $75.11 Friday and its 52-week trading range is $39.80 to $87.67.

A way to partially play Brazil with more diversification is also the SPDR S&P BRIC 40 (AMEX: BIK), although as a "BRIC" play you have to understand that this is more geographically diversified as Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The iShares also has a similar one called the iShares MSCI BRIC Index (NYSE: BKF), and Claymore has the Claymore/BNY BRIC (AMEX: EEB).

Jon C. Ogg
February 9, 2008

Sohu.com Earnings May Guide Chinese Web Stocks (SOHU, BIDU, NTES)

On Monday evening, we’ll get to see earnings out of Sohu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: SOHU). The estimates from First Call for the Chinese online search and advertising company $55.42 million in revenues.  Estimates for fiscal 2008 appear to be $1.55 EPS on $272.55 million in revenues.

As a reminder, the company just raised guidance back in December to $0.36 to $0.38 non-GAAP EPS on revenues of $55.5 to $57.5 million, with its non-advertising revenues at $24.5 to $25.5 million.  This is also after the company stock did so well after its last earnings.

Analysts have an average price target upwards of $62. If Friday's closing prices are any indicator and if the earnings were coming out immediately, it appears that options traders would be pricing in a move of up to $4.00 in either direction. We are a bit cautious in using that as a firm number because of the activity in web stocks on Friday.  You can bet that Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) and Netease (NASDAQ: NTES) will be watching this earnings report closely.

As Sohu is a Chinese Internet stock, this one was up big on Friday after the announcement of the largest merger of the Internet as far as total reach.

Sohu.com’s 52-week trading range is $20.94 to $64.83.

Jon C. Ogg
February 2, 2008

Chinese IPO Filing: BCD Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd. (BCDS)

BCD Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd. has filed to sell its shares of its ADS in an initial public offering.  The ADS's to be sold in the offering are expected to be offered by the company.  Deutsche Bank will act as the sole book-running manager, and Needham & Co. and Piper Jaffray are registered as the as co-managers for the underwriting.  It filed to sell 6 million ADS's with a $9 to $11 offering range.  Each ADS represents 5 ordinary shares.  BCD Seniconductor will trade under the tentative ticker "BCDS" on NASDAQ.

It maintains direct relationships with key market-leading end users of our products, including Changhong and Foxconn in China, ASUSTeK and Delta Electronics in Taiwan, Sony in Japan and LG and Samsung in South Korea.  The company is an analog integrated device manufacturer based in Greater China.

BCD Semiconductor posted $69.7 million in revenue in fiscal 2006, up 57.0% over 2005 revenue. It also posted a net loss in 2006 of approximately $4.6 million, and it lists its accumulated shareholders’ deficit at $61.4 million. As far as a more recent revenue target, it increased from $49.4 million to $69.3 million when comparing the 9-months ended September 30, 2006 and 2007, respectively, with an increase of 40.3%.

Jon C. Ogg
January 28, 2008

If MercadoLibre Is Already Selling Stock, Should You Buy? (MELI)

MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) filed to sell up to $292,140,000 in common stock after the close of trading on Friday via JPMorgan and Merrill Lynch.  The problem isn't that this will just be dilutive to existing shareholders, it is that insiders are also selling shares.  So there is a fear that this might be a "cashing-out" by management.

Some of the proceeds will be for the company: "We intend to use the net proceeds of this offering to fund future selective acquisitions of or investments in businesses, technologies or products that are complementary to our business and for general corporate purposes."

This one was recently given the green light by Jim Cramer and it rallied sharply before this last pullback.   The company provides a platform for buyers and sellers to conduct business in an online trading environment that fosters the development of a large and growing e-commerce platform in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Panama.

Shares have only been public for less than half of a year and this was at $80 just last month.  MercadoLibre's stock closed at $54.06 on Friday.  In pre-market trading today, shares are trading down over 12% at $46.25 and the 52-week trading range is $21.00 to $81.17.  If the company is already tapping the financial markets less than 6-months of coming public, should new holders be rushing to buy when the company and insider or institutional-backer shareholders are selling?

Jon C. Ogg
January 28, 2008

New ETF To Track India (WSDT, IIF, IFN, INP, EPI)

WisdomTree Investments (WSDT-OTC) made a fairly significant announcement yesterday for those who trade ETF's.  The ETF manager is going to launch an ETF in the latter part of February that tracks the Indian stock market, one of the larger emerging markets that is not exactly the easiest for Americans and non-Indians to invest in.

This will have the proposed tick of "EPI" on the NYSE.  What is most interesting is that it is said to be an "earnings weighted ETF" and it will offer pure exposure to local Indian securities rather than just the US-listed ADR securities.  This will also be more of an open-ended fund so that its assets will actually fluctuate more in-line with the underlying securities as opposed to swinging at wider premiums or discounts to the net asset values that closed-end funds and some ETF's encounter.

EPI will select from a broad universe of approximately 150 profitable companies included in the WisdomTree India Earnings Index on the annual index screening date. EPI will be listed on the NYSE Arca.  You can access the full release here.

The current major ETF that traders use is the iPath MSCI India Index ETN (NYSE: INP) or traders go to the closed end fund called the India Fund, Inc. (NYSE: IFN) or the Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund, Inc. (NYSE: IIF). 

This may offer investors a chance to invest in a broader basket of Indian shares without the added volatility that can be caused from the premium and discount to net asset values.  Now we just have to wait about 5 or 6 weeks to see how well it works and how active the trading is.

• Tata Buying Jaguar & Ford?
• Is investing in Africa the last emerging market frontier?

Jon C. Ogg
January 24, 2008

Africa: The Final Emerging Market Frontier (GAF, EZA, TRAMX)

As investors look for emerging markets in 2008 and beyond, they may start to look for emerging markets that have yet to emerge from that deep emerging market status.  The last spot on the planet that has yet to be turned into a series of countries with something resembling stable market economies and somewhat stable governments is AFRICA.  Africa is perhaps the hardest place in the world to invest in, although there are a whole host of US-listed companies which generate much of their operations in Africa.  The problem is that these often appear on investor boycott lists and are hard for an investor to get direct information on.  Africa is a bad neighborhood when you consider strife around the entire continent.  Even staunch humanitarians would say so. 

The good news is that there are actually some ETF's and funds that investors can purchase to invest directly into African markets and US or Foreign companies that operate in African markets.  Below are some of the ETF's and funds:

• SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (AMEX: GAF) yesterday closed $70.72; 52-week trading range $57.55 to $80.19. $50.5 million in assets.
• iShares MSCI South Africa Index (NYSE: EZA) yesterday close $131.75; 52-week trading range $103.38 to $153.79. $839 million in assets.
• T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East (TRAMX) $13.05 yesterday NAV; recent low $10.01 Sept. 10, 2007 and high $13.05. $120.8 million assets.

So why don't investors just buy direct stocks on exchanges of more established countries to get direct exposure?  Once again, Africa is a very dangerous neighborhood.  Crime and corruption is rampant in many African nations, political turmoil may be the understatement of the decade, they have things called civil wars there, many markets do not even have legitimate stock exchanges, many countries are mere regions recognized only by map-makers, and many companies only benefit from oil, gold and metals, or diamonds.  Mark Mobius of Templeton Funds used to say "invest when there is blood in the streets."  In Africa, blood in the streets seems to still be the norm.

Investors are always looking for the next new hot emerging market, or at better yet a hot new region to invest their money into for the long-haul to outperform developed nations.  If you have been around Asia you know a lot of the growth has already happened.  Eastern Europe already has countries in or in the process of joining the E.U.  Russia has grown enough that Czar Putin was just named Time's Man of the Year.  The Middle East is boom town right now with development and with near-$100 oil.  South America is chugging right along.  Unless Greenland or Antarctica suddenly get waves of human population in need of infrastructure, Africa appears to be one of the last frontiers.

These are not at all the only ways to invest in Africa and there are other vehicles out there.  But these are the more easy ways for American investors to try to participate in what through time should end up being the last major emerging market frontier.

Jon C. Ogg
January 3, 2008

Financial Market Reactions On Bhutto Assassination (INP, IFN, IIF, MINDX, IBN, TTM)

It is unfortunate to have to analyze tragic international or domestic terrorism news from a financial angle on horrible news such as the murder of a foreign leader or a challenger for that leadership ahead of an election.  Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Thursday in a suicide attack at a campaign rally that also killed killed more 20 others (reports still vary).  The news of her death was reported after the Pakistan markets were closed. 

Investors are looking to see how far down the Karachi Stock Exchange will drop and one of the best proxies as to see how this will affect the Pakistani stocks is to look at the closest markets.  India is the closest and most tied (good and bad) to Pakistan, and the worries that this could create additional instability in the region has the ETF and the Indian funds that trade in the U.S. down considerably:

• The major ETF that tracks India is the iPath MSCI India Index ETN (NYSE: INP), and it is trading down some 5% at $96.10 today.  Its 52-week trading range is $46.13 to $110.09.
• There are two closed-end funds that track the performance of Indian stocks. India Fund, Inc. (NYSE: IFN) is also down some 5.1% at $59.40 today, and its 52-week trading range is $35.51 to $71.54.  The second is less actively traded, but the Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund, Inc. (NYSE: IIF) is down some 6% at $50.75, and its 52-week trading range is $38.29 to $66.56.
• One open-ended mutual fund that we will not know how that trades really until tomorrow after we have a chance to see how those trade is the Matthews India Fund (MINDX).  These only trade at N.A.V. at the end of each day and these traded at $24.29 yesterday.  This fund started out 2007 at $15.62, so it is also up considerably.
• A couple of the more liquid stocks that trade as ADR's in the U.S. are ICICI Bank Ltd. (NYSE: IBN) and Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE: TTM), and both are down close to 5% today.

This is potentially a very large political and geopolitical event that could end up with much greater repercussions than a mere 3%or 5% move.  The hardest part of interpreting these price reactions is that Wall Street is staffed with a skeleton crew this week and part of next week.  These are the go to stock and fund names to track the financial market reactions to the situation.

Jon C. Ogg
December 27, 2007

Thai Elections, Thai Funds (TTF, TF)

When your own markets are quiet ahead of a Christmas holiday, it's frequent that investors turn to look at news in overseas markets for impacting events.  This weekend there was an election in Thailand, and this is a big event for the country when you consider that the country had a military coup in 2006.  The People Power Party apparently won 232 sets out of a 480-seat parliament (according to a Bloomberg report) , slightly short of a majority, so it will have to form alliances with other parties to hold a "majority coalition."  As always, there are always revisions that could come into play, and if you have been to or have lived in emerging market economy countries you will know that rapid changes can happen without notice, warning, or logic. 

What is important here is that if these election results stand after challenges and recounts (and perhaps if the military allows it to stand), is that this will likely reverse many of the policies in place since the 2006 military coup.  One of the most important policies for foreign investors is the capital controls that had been in place.

The September Thai coup actually had very little impact as far as the two funds that US investors use to invest in Thailand, and despite Thailand being one of the weaker Asian growth markets the closed-end funds are up in dollar terms since then.

Thai Fund Inc. (NYSE: TTF) traded under $10 at the time of the September 2006 military coup and has spent most of the last six months in a $12 to $14 trading band.  Shares of the closed-end fund closed at $13.07 Friday.  This closed-end fund has a $207.6 million market cap and trades about 118,000 shares on an average trading day.

Thai Capital Fund Inc. (AMEX: TF) also traded under $10 at the time of the September 2006 military coup and its shares have spent most of the last six months in a $12 to $15 trading range.  Shares of the closed-end fund closed at$12.85 Friday.  This closed-end fund has only a $40 million market cap and trades only about 18,000 shares on an average trading day. This fund has a $0.20 year-end distribution of capital.

As always, investors who trade closed-end funds have to take into consideration the premiums and discounts to net asset values.  Barron's lists both funds as having a premium of more than 10% to their net asset values, although that list is as of September 30, 2007.

If you sense more doubt here about the election process and the aftermath being less assured compared to other news reports around the globe, it is because many government changes in emerging markets end up looking like a soccer match.  The key difference is that lives are often lost and the score is never really official and the game is never declared over.

Jon C. Ogg
December 24, 2007

Cramer's Latin Internet Call (MELI, BIDU, GOOG)

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer was discussing an opportunity he sees in Argentina-based Mercadolibre, Inc. (NASDAQ:MELI).  Cramer likes the model.  It hosts an online trading platform in Latin America that facilitates e-commerce and related services.  It permits businesses and individuals to list items and conduct their sales and purchases online in either a fixed-price or auction-based format.  It also provides MercadoPago for online payments to be paid and sent.

Cramer of course used the Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Baidu.com (NASDAQ:BIDU) analogy to derive a value, but said it's more similar to Baidu.  He really digs its Latin America focus and he noted that this one could go from around $55.00 to somewhere around $85.00 down the road.

Even more interestingly, Cramer did something different than his normal caveats about waiting for a sell-off or a pullback.  He noted something to the tune of, "You might get it cheaper if you wait, but I wouldn't wait too long on this one."

Mercadolibre came public at the end of Summer and every time this has pulled back it has just been a buying opportunity.   Its shares closed up 5.5% today at $53.63 and that was less than 1% under its prior 52-week highs.  Shares rose over 5% in after-hours to almost $57.00.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

IPO Filing: Gushan Environmental, Biodeiesel & In China (GU)

After yesterday's close, there was quite an interesting IPO filing with the buzz that may ring in many ears: enter Gushan Environmental Energy Limited..... Gushan Environmental is biodiesel player for the alternative energy investors, and based in China for the China-investors.   

The nominal amount of the filing is for $250 million and the company will take the proposed ticker "GU" on the NYSE.  Merrill Lynch has been tapped as the lead underwriter in the syndicate and co-managers are listed as CIBC World Markets and Piper Jaffray.  So, take a look at the description and you will see what the potential excitement is:

• China's largest biodiesel producer as measured by annual production capacity in 2006 by Frost & Sullivan.....
• One of the first commercial biodiesel producers in China; commenced operations in 2001 predecessor company, Sichuan Gushan Vegetable Fat Chemistry Co., Ltd., or Sichuan Gushan).
• Aggregate annual biodiesel production capacity increased from 40,000 tons in 2004 to 70,000 tons, 170,000 tons and 190,000 tons as of 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively.
• Produced and sold 36,045, 61,119 and 158,994 tons of biodiesel in 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively, and 136,587 tons of biodiesel in the nine months ended September 30, 2007. REVENUES: revenues and net income increased substantially during the same period.... generated revenues of RMB172.2 million, RMB360.8 million and RMB824.5 million (US$110.0 million) in 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively, representing a compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 118.8%, and generated revenues of RMB736.4 million (US$98.3 million) for the nine months ended on September 30, 2007.
• Net income of RMB74.2 million, RMB152.5 million and RMB332.8 million (US$44.4 million) in 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively, representing a CAGR of 111.8%, and recorded net income of RMB250.1 million (US$33.4 million) for the nine months ended on September 30, 2007.
• TARGET: to increase annual production capacity to 400,000 tons by the end of 2008.

We frequently discuss more detailed and IPO previews with back door plays for our open email distribution list if you wish to join.

Jon C. Ogg
December 4, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Business News: What You Missed Thanksgiving & Pre-Black Friday (AKH, GS, GLW, AMZN, NWS, MT, UAUA, URI, GOOG, CDTI)

Air France KLM SA (NYSE:AKH/ADR) shares traded up roughly 7% Thursday after beating earnings from price hikes and fuel hedging.

After United Rentals (NYSE:URI) said it was suing Cerberus on the broken merger, Cerberus is taking its own defensive actions to cap the damages to $100 million.

The O.E.C.D. puts total U.S. write-offs and write-downs at roughly $300 Billion from major U.S. banks, while so far only $50 Billion has been estimated out of major banks as to what may be written down.....Source, New York Times.

UAL Corp. (NASDAQ:UAUA) may be closer to a merger than they led on... source, Business Week.   Business Week also wonders if Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is winded......and it talks up Clean Diesel Technologies (NASDAQ:CDTI)....

Bond insurer CIFG is being acquired for some $1.5 Billion by Groupe Banque Populaire and Groupe Caisse d’Epargne to take ownership from Natixis..... New York Times ran a story.

ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT/ADR) confirmed media reports that it is in talks with controlling holders in China Oriental Group Limited on increasing its stake from 28%.

CNET and TechCrunch reported that News Corp. (NYSE:NWS) may acquire social networking site LinkedIn in early 2008.

Amazon.com's (NASDAQ:AMZN) Kindle e-book reader priced at $399.00 is actually sold out already, with a new December 5, 2007 'in-stock' date.

Financial Times reported that Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is trying to raise $4 to $6 Billion for a new stock picking hedge fund... not quant, not computerized... old fashioned stock picking.

Corning (NYSE:GLW) may be one to watch as SAMSUNG is reportedly investing $2.2 Billion to increase its LCD production.

WSJ ASIA: China Railway raised 22.44 billion yuan from its Shanghai initial public offering, after pricing its shares at the top of the indicated price range.

Jon C. Ogg
November 23, 2007

Focus Media Earnings, The Envy of Lamar (FMCN, LAMR)

Chinese advertising giant Focus Media Holding Ltd.(NASDAQ:FMCN), is set to report earnings after the close.  First Call has a limited range of from only a few analysts, but this quarter is expected to show $0.44 EPS on $129.4 million in revenues.  Next quarter is expected to show 0.49 EPS on revenues of $142.6 million.  If the company offers any long-term projections, it is expected to show $1.93 EPS and revenues of $635 million for fiscal Dec-2008.

For whatever it's worth, Focus Media just sold 13.72 million ADR's in a secondary offering, of which 5 million came from the company and 8.72 million were from existing shareholders.  Shares are down over 1% at $58.55 today ahead of earnings, and the 52-week trading range is $29.32 to $66.30.

Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ:LAMR) is the U.S. counterpart, although Lamar has been a serial underperformer over the last year.  Also, Focus is thought of more as audiovisual television displays in China, while Lamar offers billboards, posters, bulletins, buses, digital boards, and more.  If you want to compare Focus to Lamar, here is how it compares on simple forward valuations based on estimates:

Stock    MKTCAP  08P/E    09REV$
FMCN    $7.5B    30.31    $635M
LAMR    $4.75B    89.9    $1.29B

We used to have Focus Media as a more strategic acquisition candidate for a hypothetical Special Situation Investing Newsletter play, but three things were and are in the way:

• it grew too fast,
• Chinese companies are for all practical purposes not really able to be acquired in the same manner as a traditional company, and...
• valuations. 

But if this trend continues with Focus Media outperforming and the woes at Lamar continuing, it would not be a stretch to think of Focus making the cross-Pacific jump and making a play for Lamar.  Stranger things have happened, and even a highly skeptical regulatory environment would have a hard time saying that a deal of that sort was a risk to national security.

Jon C. Ogg
November 19, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers. 

How Investors Should View Honda's Fuel Cell Car (HMC, F, TM, BLDP, ZAAP)

The promise of fuel cell cars has been a long arduous prospect for investors and for green-tech consumers alike.  Last week marked the more official unveiling of Honda Motor's FCX Clarity, the coming fuel cell car that will be released in the U.S. during the summer of 2008.  24/7 Wall St. wanted to review what this will mean for Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE:HMC) as far as its stock is concerned. 

The truth is that will be phenomenal, but it will not be an investable event until 2009 or later.  The reason is that this FCX Clarity is only going to be released on a limited basis in California in summer of 2008 (only to customers currently residing in the Torrance, Santa Monica and Irvine areas who meet additional qualification criteria will be eligible to take an FCX Clarity home) because refueling fuel cells can't be done just anywhere.  Not yet, anyway.  The good news is that these will be leased for 3-years for $600/month.  The bad news is that it is going to be years and years before this is readily available countrywide and many metro areas do not even know when alternative energy fuel stations will be proposed.

This is exactly why any politician offering the American public a four year fix to our energy problem is selling rhetoric you shouldn't listen to.  It is going to be 2012 to 2016 before the U.S. will see any noticeable difference, and anyone who believes that any full system-wide fix happening before 2020 is probably more optimistic than realistic.  You are hearing this from someone who believes that green investing and green businesses are already becoming big business.  But there are also financial and logistical realities.

Electric cars and electric scooters are already available from an OTC-Bulletin Board traded company called ZAP! (OTC-BB:ZAAP). Daimler's (NYSE:DAI) "smart" vehicle is said to be available in 2008, although ZAP has a lawsuit against Daimler.

Toyota (NYSE:TM) has been a huge success with its hybrid offerings.  The Prius is for all practical purposes sold out at Toyota dealerships and used car dealers tell us that any Prius gets sold site-unseen and shipped out to California.  It was surprising that Toyota even bothered advertising it, as they don't need to spend the cash.

Ford (NYSE:F) also has hybrids sell out basically as they come on the lot.  The hybrid tech is licensed from Toyota.  I have test driven a Ford Escape hybrid and was impressed, although the recycled interior is taking it a bit far (after all leather is recycled cow skin, and burping cows emit carbon.. look it up).  There are many other hybrid vehicles on the road, but the fuel cell is the ultimate goal with zero-emissions.

Ballard Power (NASDAQ:BLDP) was long thought of as the fuel cell stock play, and this has been a "watch stock" on our alternative energy sector tag on the 24/7 Wall St. site.  In fact, I have been covering that stock on and off since 1996 or 1997 when this was just a future technology.  But now Ballard has sold off its automotive fuel cell business to Ford and to Daimler AG (NYSE:DAI) in return for its stakes held by both companies.  Now Ballard will only focus on fuel cells for the industrial sector usage.  It will still develop the bus market, but the future of Ballard in the consumer auto markets will be that of a manufacturing one without the intellectual property.  The market gave this one a quick "thumbs up" vote, but shares have come right back down.

Honda's market cap is currently around $123 Billion, and it is hardly followed by analysts in the U.S.   The ADR shares trade under $34.00 today and its 52-week trading range is $31.29 to $40.82.  24/7 Wall St. commends Honda for getting this commercially launched in the U.S., but we caution investors looking to play this for another year or two should be investing in "HMC" only the merits of what cars they offer today rather than their future fuel cell cars for the U.S. consumer. 

Jon C. Ogg
November 19, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter and can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.  24/7 Wall St. also publishes "The Business Day in Global Warming" and you can subscribe directly to that on an RSS feed if you are only interested in green investing news by setting your RSS readers to the following link: http://www.247wallst.com/alternative_energy/index.html

Van der Moolen Bites The Dust As NYSE Specialist (VDM, NYX)

Van der Moolen (NYSE:VDM) posted another loss today, but we don't even care about the results after looking at the real news.  Van der Moolen is terminating its operation as a U.S. specialist on the exchange trading floors.  To top it off, the Netherlands-based financial trading firm is going to delist its American depository shares from the New York Stock Exchange.

The company's European operations are running profitably and the company said it would have been profitable outside of one-time items.

In the press release, it outlines its plans: "Losses in the US operation of Van der Moolen Specialists ("VDMS") continued this quarter. We therefore decided to terminate the Specialist activities of VDMS. We will focus our efforts on our other US activities; brokerage and trading on CBSX. On CBSX, we are active in over 1000 listed stocks of a total of approx. 3000 stocks. We intend to further develop this activity...... In the third quarter of 2007, we have acquired a 100% interest in Robbins & Henderson LLC, a US based institutional broker.... The acquisition of Robbins & Henderson forms a cornerstone in the start of a brokerage division in the US."

The company also sold 40,826 shares of NYSE Euronext (NYSE:NYX) in the quarter.  The company says it will work with the NYSE to secure a smooth transition process.  But you can imagine that any NYSE listed companies which have Van der Moolen as the specialist firm for their stocks are already on the phones securing new specialist agreements.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Baidu & Overinflated Bubble Pricing Lessons (BIDU, RIMM, GOOG, AMZN)

Baidu.com (NASDAQ:BIDU) is showing how vulnerable overinflated shares are when even a hint of bad news or "Less Good" news comes out.  A report out of JPMorgan deemed somewhat cautious is the culprit.  Now Baidu's shares are DOWN OVER $50.00 FROM INTRADAY HIGHS.  These bubble stocks can rally and rally beyond what the valuations or fundamentals will merit.  If you were a trader in 1998 to 2000 you know that.  But when the air comes out it is one massive rush.  The NASDAQ was over 2,820 earlier, but now it is at 2,775 and the air is out at least for part of the day.

The Chinese stocks have made the endless runs like this before, only to give back huge percentages of losses.  VMWare (NYSE:VMW) is not Chinese, but it was making the same sort of gains.  VMware shares are now down over 5% and are down almost $14.00 from intraday highs.  Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is also down $20.00 from its intraday highs.  Research-in-Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) is now down some 8% on the day and down over $10.00 from intraday highs.  Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) shares are down 6% on the day. The list goes on and on.

The truth is that these stocks can swing back too.  But the lessons of the bubble every few years or so seem to get forgotten before the reminder of what can happen shows itself.  Sometimes the selling pressure is just profit taking, and sometimes it's just selling because everyone else is selling.

Jon C. Ogg
October 11, 2007

Infosys: When Good Earnings Aren't Enough (INFY)

Infosys Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:INFY) is seeing shares trade down 4% pre-market in the US after roughly a 6.9% drop in overseas trading on the Mumbai exchange in India.  The company posted higher EPS and even raised guidance with $0.48 EPS versus $0.46 estimates and sees next quarter $0.51 EPS versus $0.49 estimates.  Revenues also showed a $1 Billion quarter, a first.

There are concerns that currency appreciation may have an impact and the ongoing concern that Infosys won't see the same growth rates ahead as margins are contracting.  The earnings growth for Fiscal March 2008 was raised from 13% to 15%.  This compares to year over year growth this last quarter of 18%.

Shares are trading down 4.5% at $52.75 in pre-market trading; the 52-week range is $44.00 to $61.25.  To give you an idea of the size of Infosys and Indian IT outsourcing markets, the market cap of Infosys is roughly $31 Billion.  The average analyst target going into earnings was $61.00.  Outsourcing will likely continue growing, but at first glance it appears the rate at which it will grow may be declining.

Jon C. Ogg
October 11, 2007

IPO Pricing: China Digital TV Double Premium (STV)

China Digital TV Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE:STV) has a premium IPO pricing, after already having raised its price range for a 12 million ADR offering.  The revised higher range was $13.00 to $15.00, and $16.00 per share is the pricing.  Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse acted as the joint book-runners, and co-managers are Piper Jaffray, Needham, and CIBC World Markets.

China Digital TV provides conditional access systems to the digital television market in China.  The company has installed its systems at 130 digital television networks throughout China.  If you have seen the Chinese stocks this week, you'll know why the deal price got boosted.  There was strong demand for this IPO ahead of this week, but the parabolic moves on even the smallest headlines or hints may have helped put an even higher premium into the opening price today.

As this is an NYSE offering, shares should start trading shortly after the open today.

Jon C. Ogg
October 4, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the SPECIAL SITUATION INVESTING NEWSLETTER and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.      

e-Future Shows Traders Still Chasing Chinese Stocks (EFUT)

e-Future Information Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:EFUT) is seeing shares post huge gains this morning on active volume after announcing that Beijing Tourism Group ("BTG") has licensed e-Future ONE VPM (Visual Process Management) Solution to centralize purchasing and optimize business processes of its selected business segments. Financial terms are not disclosed, go figure.

BTG is a collection of the greatest number of famous brands in China and has established six major business segments: Hotels, Scenic Spots, Shopping, Dining and Cuisines, Automobile Services, and Travel & Tours.  BTG is one of China's largest tourism groups in hotels, travel services, automobiles, shopping, dining and cuisines, MICE, entertainment and scenic spots business.

Shares are up big as traders continue hunger for anything-China again.  The stock EFUT is up 40% on now over 2 million shares at $26.70, and shares have traded in a $24.42 to $28.38 range today and $10.52 to $49.90 range over the last year.  This is one of those hi-flyers from the end of 2006 that had seen shares in a steady staircase down all year until mid-September.

When you look at the scope of the e-Future clients already, you'll wonder if this stock jump is more hype than Dollars (or Renminbi). e-Future claims it is now serving more than 800 clients, including over 500 retailers and over 200 distributors and Fortune 500 companies that do business in China: Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Kimberly-Clark, the Chang'an Motors and Ford Motors joint venture, B&Q- Kingfisher China, GUCCI China, Aeon-JUSCO China, PARKSON China, SOGO China and Mickey's Space stores (Disney franchises), Belle, Lianhua, Suning, Wuhan Zhongbai, Wushang Group, Bubugao, Yonghui and China Duty-Free Stores.

China may be the hottest thing going and the market may have exponential upside.  But a massive jump like this is traders chasing stocks up.  This has been seen over and over.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Cramer on Canadian Oil Trust Takeover Names (BTE, CNE, PGH, PVX, PWE, AAV, GDI)

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer addressed a couple of issues that may take the DJIA to his year-end target.  General Motors (NYSE:GM) to $45.00 by year-end since they got the healthcare issue behind with the unions.  Citigroup (NYSE:C) and other financials will go higher if Warren Buffett or other key players take a large stake in Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC).

Cramer noted that it is time to look for oil stocks that pulled back, and he noted Gardner Denver Inc. (NYSE:GDI) that makes nuts and bolts, and compressor and vacuum systems.  It is not entirely levered to oil, but he thinks that at 11-times next year's earnings it is too low and could trade at 13-times to 14-times next year's earnings.  It even has large international exposure that can be helped by a weak dollar.

Cramer also said that oil down under $80.00 per barrel is a gift, and he is looking at another undervalued play to peers.  But he is looking at the Canadian Energy Trusts again since the oil fields underneath the trusts could be acquired.  Here are his picks, and the premium being paid for Prime West is major:

• Baytex (BTE)...has the least downside and 47% upside
• Canetic (CNE)
• Pengrowth (PGH)
• Provident Energy Trust (PVX)
• Penn West Energy Trust (PWE) is less of a target and may be a buyer
• Advantage (AAV)

Our subscribers have read some issues in the past regarding this, and without going too far into any potential mergers in Canadian Oil Trusts it is mandatory to know that the geography in these and the fact that oil has to remain Very High for these to be viable.

Other major Cramer stories:

• TOP PICKS FOR 2007;
• "Mortgage Madness" Portfolio;
• His Top China Picks, with caution;
• Warren Buffett reviews: Group1 and Group 2.

Jon C. Ogg
September 26, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St., LLC Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Baidu.com Up Eight Straight Days, Can It Continue? (BIDU, SINA, SOHU, NTES)

Baidu.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) is one of these stocks that is pretty amazing when you look at its trading activity and its volume.  BIDU stock closed up Wednesday another 2.6% at $275.95 on 11.8 million shares, which is another yearly high and more than double average daily volume.  This wouldn't be a big day on a percentage stock move basis alone unless you look at how it has been trading of late. 

This stock has managed to close up for Eight consecutive days from its last down day on September 2, 2007 when shares closed at $213.64.  Here are the descending closing prices from before Wednesday: $268.79; $252.89; $234.88; $232.47; $230.12; $227.04; $218.10; $213.64. But compare that to dates below and this one looks amazing.  If you compare this to lows in the past months it becomes "exuberant":

• Lowest close August: $168.89 on August 16, 2007
• Lowest close July:       $175.04 on July 24, 2007
• Lowest close June:      $135.64 on June 12, 2007
• Lowest close May:        $121.35 on May 1, 2007
• Lowest close April:       $93.523 on April 2, 2007
• Lowest close 52-Week: $87.28 October 2006

Obviously this one has everything going for it.  It is a hot stock for sure, but it is a hot web search engine stock in the even hotter Chinese market.  The overly obvious is that one incredible quarter is being priced in.  Should we dare we mention the hype from the coming 2008 Olympics?  But what else could be coming besides that?  Obviously a stock split comes to mind, but what else?

Yamana's Offer For Meridian Gold Appears Inadequate (MDG, AUY, GLD)

Meridian Gold Inc. (NYSE:MDG) has announced that its Board of Directors unanimously recommends that shareholders reject the amended unsolicited offer by Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE:AUY) and not tender any of their shares after it determined that the amended offer still fails to provide full value for Meridian Gold shares.

The company officer quotes signal an inadequate offer and that the company is continuing to execut on its own.  It also has received written opinions from each of its financial advisors, BMO Capital Markets and Goldman Sachs, that the consideration offered under the amended Yamana offer was inadequate.

Meridian Gold's Board of Directors also reviewed its reasons for rejecting the original offer: the C$0.85 increase in the cash portion of the consideration represents only a 2.9% increase in the total consideration as of the announcement date of the amended offer; the cash has increased only from 10.9% to 13.4% of the total consideration as of the announcement date of the amended offer, and the offer still consists overwhelmingly of Yamana shares; if the Meridian shares had tracked the rise in the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU) since Yamana's original June 27 announcement, the amended offer would represent a one day premium of only 8.3%.

Meridian Gold is actually toward the lower-end of its 52-week trading range: Its Canadian ADR's closed at $24.12 Friday in US trading and its range over the last year is $21.58 to $32.53.  It also has a $2.4 Billion market cap and trades more than 1 million shares per day on average.  The streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) ETF that tracks gold ounces at 1/10 the price minus management fees, closed at $64.94 on Friday, and its 52-week trading range is $55.55 to $68.73.

Jon C. Ogg
August 20, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer's European Picks (TOT, SI, ABB, PHG, BF)

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer made his final "Investing In Europe" series pick.  He went to France and named Total (NYSE:TOT) as the oil pick as his final pick for the European buy list.  He likes their global footprint and they are looking at more developing country energy plays, but they are going where many American companies cannot get as much done.  He also likes how well they operate even in Russia and Africa.  Their refineries are also being upgraded to process the more sour crude that needs more refining, and this one is cheap compared to some of its US counterparts and is even trading more off its highs.

This series that Cramer did was all full of the big cap stocks in Europe.  What this will prove in the end if these all go up is not so much that these were just incredible stock picks.  It will prove we are in a major bull market and the market is willing to buy big cap stocks again.  You could go make the exact same strategy picks out of Asia and probably come back with the same sort of results.  Interestingly enough, in Cramer's game plan for next week he ran more of a cautious note and suggested taking at least some profits.  So it doesn't seem he's just going to chase winners endlessly.  Cramer made other stock picks from Europe all week in his series, and here they are:

Thursday, he picked BASF (NYSE:BF) out of Germany as a chemical predator.

Wednesday, Cramer picked Siemens (NYSE:SI) as the major conglomerate for Europe that is similar to GE.

Tuesday, Cramer went to Switzerland's infrastructure pick for the world as ABB Ltd. (NYSE:ABB).

Cramer's first pick this week was Philips Electronics (NYSE:PHG) out of The Netherlands (NYSE:PHG).

Jon C. Ogg
July 20, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

CDC Corp. Online Gaming Unit IPO Spin-Off (CHINA)

CDC Corp. (NASDAQ:CHINA) plans to file an SEC registration for an IPO of up to US$200 million aggregate principal amount of Class A Common Shares of CDC Games Corporation, its business unit engaged in online games in China.  This will allow CDC Games to differentiate its gaming line from CDC Corporation and provide a more targeted investment vehicle for investors seeking to invest only in the online games portion of CDC Corporation's diverse businesses.  The offering is expected to occur in Q4 2007.  CDC Corporation currently anticipates that, in addition to CDC Games offering newly issued Class A Common Shares, CDC Corporation will also be a selling shareholder in the offering.

CDC Corp. itself has a market cap of $1.11 Billion before the reaction to the filing.  We will follow up with more detailed financial data with percentages of the companies and with financial breakdowns of each unit.

Jon C. Ogg
July 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Nintendo Close to Overtaking Sony's Size

Stock Tickers: NTDOY, SNE, AAPL

There is an interesting take out of Reuters in Japan today, showing that Nintendo (NTDOY-OTC) is catching up to Sony (SNE-NYSE/ADR) in market value (market cap in U.S.).  The report says that Nintendo has overtaken Matsushita today and is now closing on Sony.  Nintendo's market cap of 6.3 trillion Yen is equivalent to almost $51 Billion today, compared to 6.23 trillion Yen for matsushita and 6.64 trillion for Sony.  Nintendo shares have risen nearly four-fold compared to a more than 70% gain out of Sony.

Last month's NPD data put Nintendo's Wii gaming system outselling the PlayStation 3 console by 3-1 in Japan and 2-1 in the U.S.  The Nintendo DS handheld gaming system is also chugging far more in market share than the Sony PSP. 

Reuters gave some basic data observation here, but there are many things to consider far outside of the article.  Nintendo has found a way to reinvent itself while Sony has found a way to marginalize itself.  From a U.S. standpoint, Sony is rapidly becoming a company that has more expensive plasma and LCD TV's and has a gaming system that costs too much.  The good news is that they have other electronics, cool digital cameras, and a movie/entertainment studio that buyers don't shy away from.  Nintendo is all-gaming and has been knocking the socks off Sony.  Sony is also the one that stupidly wasn't able to take the Walkman to the next level, which allowed Apple's (AAPL-NASDAQ) iPod to takeover the world.  Nintendo spent roughly a decade in the backseat after the Sony PlayStation took the world by force, and now it looks like it is getting some payback.

The law of big numbers will probably come into play at some point, but right now it is hard to find a true-believer in Sony.  Sony may even have to further consider some serious strategic alternatives sooner rather than later.  Last week we noted that Nintendo needs to adopt a better ADR program rather than its OTC-quoted stock, and that still seems like a good idea.

Jon C. Ogg
June 20, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Sterlite From India: US Market Stock Offering

On Tuesday, we'll have a special offering that is not a true IPO but is a chance for US investors to be able to invest directly in India without having to leave the US-shores. 

Sterlite Industries India Ltd. will list shares on the NYSE under the ticker "SLT" in what technically a secondary offering for the company but an initial public offering in the U.S.   This is a subsidiary unit of Vedanta Resources Plc, which has other interests in metals and mining in non-ferrous metals.  Sterlite is selling 125 million shares in a public offering of up to $2.1 Billion, and the price will be determined based upon the closing price on the Bombay Stock Exchange.  Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Nomura Securities are handling the underwriting, and the underwriters will have the option to purchase up to 18.75 million shares in an overallotment option.

Jon C. Ogg
June 18, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Turkish Incursions Into Iraq Hurt US-Listed Turkish Shares (TKF, TKC)

Some military and political moves affect entire global markets and some moves are limited to certain regions.  If you just look at headlines and saw "Turkish Tropps Launch Offensive Into Iraq" you would worry that major Middle East tension and conflict was heating back up.  If you know the history of Kurdish Iraq, the Kurdish area of Turkey, and the efforts for Kurds to break away from Turkey then this is just another messy day at the geopolitical office meeting the financiers.

There are reports of Turkish armed forces strikes across the Iraqi borders and itdepends all upon which sources you read.  Some say YES and some say NO.  Yahoo! notes that troops have entered and are chasing guerillas that use staging bases there.

The armed fighting between Kurdish separatists and Turkish forces is more than 20 years old, and it is a mult-generations'-old issue.  The Kurds want their own nation and Turkey isn't exactly too fond of giving back land it will lose rights and control over.  You can understand both sides of the argument.

There are very few live direct plays for US investors to play the Turkish stock market here in the US, but there are two:  The Turkish Investment Fund (TKF-NYSE) and Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC-NYSE).

TKF is trading down 4.1% at $17.25 today.  TKC is trading down 2.2% at $16.06 today.

You might be able to blame this on the two days of weak trading in the US markets, and you might be able to blame the perceived geopolitical risks.  The Turkish markets measured by the ISE National 100 Index and the ISE National 30 were down 1.27% and 1.35% respectively.  Energy traders are of course watching this because of the headline risks, but if the history would indicate that this is a retalitory strike.  If you can start a sentence with "just" it is probably "just" another messy day at the geopolitical office in a meeting with the financiers.

Jon C. Ogg
June 6, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Why the Chinese Love Nokia

This morning Nokia (NOK) issued a release that China Postel Mobile Communications Co, Ltd. would purchase mobile devices worth roughly $2.5 Billion (US Dollars) in 2007.  This is the largest cell phone distributor in China and its market share was said to be over 30% in 2006.  The companies have been working together since 1998 and China Postel has distributed more than 37 million from Nokia since that time.

Nokia's market cap is $97 Billion in equivalent, but its dollar adjusted revenues appear to be some $54 Billion in 2006.  Nokia has so far been successful in its fight against Qualcomm (QCOM) over CDMA royalties, and this fight is helping it further in being a lower-cost provider.  China is an enormous opportunity and it is already one of the top consumer markets for items like this.  But there is still price sensitivity for 90% of the country, and Nokia is that answer.  Nokia might not be the only game in town but it shows that price and relationships can win the day.  This would represent close to 5% of the company's entire revenue for the year.  If that isn't proof that the Chinese market loves Nokia then what is?

Jon C. Ogg
May 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer's Picks From France

Cramer on tonight's MAD MONEY said the best market in the world right now is France because of Sarkozy who is expected to win thge election there.  Cramer has 2 picks:

1) CGG Veritas (CGV-NYSE/ADR); 2) Veolia Environment SA (VE-NYSE/ADR)

CGG Veritas is into geophysical services for mapping the ocean and land is its winning hand for oil and gas drillers and surveyors.  They are the #3 map maker and #2 in offshore behind Schlumberger.  It has a dupoly in input/output and the Atlantic being opened up in the US may offer a huge opportunity if and when it gets opened up for drilling.

Veolia Environment is a water play and waste management that transports water and converts waste water.  With Sarkozy, he wants to privatize agencies because companies can do a better job than the socialist managers.  They are the #2 waste management company on earth.  This one even does recycling and waste to energy conversion, plus energy management services.  It has 30 Billion Euro's worth of carbon credits on its books.

After Cramer was finished with these, Cramer said that Sarkozy has said he would like to buy a taser for every police officer in France and that could be a huge win for Taser International (TASR-NASDAQ).  TASR just jumped 6% on this in after-hours trading.

I would normally say that these two picks based solely on the election in France is bunk, but the recent elections that are coming up in France have Nicolas Sarkozy favored to win and he's a true capitalist with capitalist reforms coming.  My other reason for agreeing with him is that the head of the European Central Bank is Jean-Claude Trichet. BUT.... Regardless of if the country is really going to be the best, you still have to believe in the companies and sectors that these are in.  Otherwise you are might as well just look at the iShares MSCI France (EWQ-AMEX) and ask your broker if you can hedge the currency position since the US Dollar has lost so much ground against the Euro.

Jon C. Ogg
May 2, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.