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NVIDIA's Solid Growth... Maybe Not Enough (NVDA)

Shares of NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) are getting to see some pressure after its earnings report.  The graphics giant reported net income of $176.8 million which generated $0.30 EPS, which compares with income of $132.3 million or $0.22 last year.  On an adjusted basis, its EPS was $0.36.  It posted revenue of $1.15 billion versus $844.3 million in the same quarter last year.   Despite these nice gains in the company's numbers, First Call had estimates of $0.38 EPS on $1.15 Billion in revenues. 

NVIDIA also shipped 42% more GPU's this quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago.

Unfortunately, the company has saved its guidance for its conference call.  Shareholders are very nervous ahead of the comments because shares are down over 6% at $20.49 in after-hours trading.  That's almost 50% lower than its 52-week high of $39.67.

We'll hold off on passing any final verdict until guidance has been filtered out, but on the surface after a sharp stock drop and all the characteristics of a solid GARP stock this should have probably already been priced in by the market.

Jon C. Ogg
May 8, 2008

AMD (AMD): No One Is Buying What CEO Hector Ruiz Is Selling

"Let's get on down to the main attraction, With a little less talk and a lot more action."--Elvis

AMD (AMD) CEO Hector Ruiz makes a few promises a year and keep none of them. Most are about sales and profits. According to MarketWatch today "he reaffirmed his team's vow to make AMD operationally profitable by the second half of 2008"

The was not the worst of  it. Ruiz has been hinting for months that he will get out of some of the company's manufacturing businesses, out-sourcing them to save money. There have even been rumors that he will sell of spin-off the company's graphics chip business, the one AMD paid $5 billion for.

The company's shares are trading down slightly today. They are still near their 52-week low. That is not likely to change. The company's forecast for the current quarter is awful.

One more day of promises from Ruiz and another day with nothing delivered.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Can NVIDIA Earnings Get It Off The Floor? (NVDA, AMD)

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is set to post earnings right after the close today.  First Call has estimates pegged at $0.38 EPS on $1.15 Billion in revenues.  As far as next quarter, estimates are $0.37 EPS on $1.12 Billion in revenues.  For fiscal Jan-2009, the company is expected to post $1.66 EPS on $4.76 Billion in revenues.

Since its last report, earnings estimates have come down from $0.41 EPS for this quarter, and analysts trimmed $0.03 off for next quarter as well.  Estimates were taken down $0.10 for fiscal Jan-2009.

Analyst have an average target price of roughly $30.00.  Interestingly enough, this was just raised Monday by Wedbush Morgan to a Buy rating and on Tuesday, American Technology Research reiterated its Buy rating.

Options are a bit harder to use today as the stock is right in between fairly wide strike prices, but it looks like options traders are braced for a move of $0.85 to $0.90 in either direction.  The short interest data showed 17.75+ million shares short as of the last seen data.

The good news on its chart is that the stock has recovered sharply off of lows, even after a 2.5% drop to $21.45 today.  Shares are well above the 50-day moving average of $19.86, and well under the 200-day moving average of $28.57.  Its 52-week trading range is $17.31 to $39.67.

It is no secret that right now part of the woes are from Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD).  AMD has been troubled in its processor business, but its ATI Graphics business is a bright sport currently as many believe ATI's newer Radeon products are winning in sales.

Jon C. Ogg
May 8, 2008

AMD (AMD) And The Power To Amaze

AMD (AMD) is going to offer the world more powerful chips for servers and PCs. It is not enough that it and Intel (INTC) have hardware with four cores, or processors, to do Herculean computational work. Now AMD says it will produce chips with six cores and then eight. Intel will have to keep pace.

According to The Wall Street Journal "More calculating engines tend to boost computing performance, although software modifications are sometimes needed to exploit the full benefits of such "multicore" chips."

Therein lies the problem. At some point the chip power moves beyond the needs of the hardware manufacturers and the programs who make applications for the semiconductors. The power of the weapons moves ahead of the soldiers.

AMD hopes to beat Intel by using R&D to best Intel, but the market still needs to have a product which it can use. It is not clear that six and eight core products fit that bill.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Advanced Micro Devices Rises On Chatter (AMD)

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is seeing a crazy and active day.  We saw an unusual rise in this yesterday on active volume, but that rise was a 6% rise.  Today's gains are more than 10% to $7.30 (highest levels since late-February) on very active trading.  The call option buying for may is also more active than usual.  While there is no fresh news on the company or from the company, the move is being attributed to market chatter. 

Our friends over at Thomson Squawk Box noted that the chatter they are lending credit to is that the company could be split in two. 

Some other chatter revolves around takeover speculation, but if you look around that really looks like it may just be more message boards driven than anything. It may also be on the heels of other tech mergers out there.

We have also noted in the past that rumors have come up occasionally pointing to a Hector Ruiz departure.  We have called him one of our own ten CEO's that need to leave, but he has been acting more and more like he has dug in and set up an anchor there.

We'll see if any real solid news comes out confirming or denying the talk out there.  Until then, it's just another stock moving on rumors.

Jon C. Ogg
May 6, 2008

Jon Ogg is a producer and editor of the "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter from 247WallSt.com.

Broadcom Trumps Revenues (BRCM)

Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) has issued earnings of $0.14 EPS on a GAAP basis on $1.032 Billion in revenues.  First Call has EPS on a non-GAAP basis as $0.28 so we'll have to see the break-down of those numbers.  First Call had revenue expectations of $992 million.

The CEO comments are dictating the real trend here, "..first quarter results came in much stronger than we expected, driven primarily by greater demand within our traditional wireline businesses... a record revenue level and strong cash flow from operations and to fund an aggressive share repurchase program..."  But this is the real issue at hand: "While we remain cautious on the macroeconomic front, based on strong ordering trends from our customers throughout the first quarter, we expect solid revenue growth for the second quarter within each of our three major target markets."

Unfortunately, no formal guidance was given.  That will likely come in the conference call. Shares closed down 1.1%% at $23.55 in normal trading, and this one is up over 6% to $to $25.05 in after-hours trading.  The 52-week trading range is $16.38 to $43.07. 

We'd note that this move up, assuming it holds, will take this stock into overbought levels but the stock is also still well under its 200-day moving average of $28.32.

Jon C. Ogg
April 22, 2008

Texas Instruments Holds Up Despite Some Caution (TXN)

Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) just posted earnings of $0.49 EPS after items, which was really $0.43 when accounting for a tax gain and it reported Revenues of $3.27 Billion, while First Call had estimates of $0.43 EPS on $3.28 billion in revenues. 

The company gave guidance for the coming quarter of $0.42 to $0.48 on Revenues of $3.24 to $3.50 Billion versus estimates of $0.48 EPS on $3.44 Billion in revenues.  The company showed orders trending down with that levels recorded as $3.22 Billion in new orders.

Analyst estimates had already come down gradually during the quarter, and the average analyst target ahead of earnings was right around $34.00.

If this was a few weeks the market might be punishing it more, but now the market seems to at least be accepting this as a "less-bad, therefor good" event for now.  Shares closed up over 3% at $30.59, and shares are down just under 2% at $30.59 in after-hours; the 52-week trading range is $27.51 to $39.63.

Jon C. Ogg
April 21, 2008

Texas Instruments Bracing For Earnings (TXN)

After the close today, we’ll get to see earnings out of Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN). The estimates for the company from First Call are $0.43 EPS on $3.28 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.48 EPS on $3.44 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Dec-2008 are $1.97 EPS on $13.96 billion in revenues.

Analyst estimates have been coming down gradually during the quarter, and the average analyst target is right around $34.00.  Options are a bit hard to use as the expiration date is now nearly a month away, but options traders appear to be braced for a move of up to $1.60 in either direction, close to a 5% move.  This chart is an interesting one as shares are only about 10% above current 52-week lows.  To top that off, the stock has been stock between $28.00 and $32.00 for most of 2008. 

Shares are up almost 3% ahead of the report today, despite a softening mobile market being reported by many carriers.  We'll also be paying attention to the fervor of buybacks as Texas Instruments decided it wanted to retire many shares in 2007.

Jon C. Ogg
April 21, 2008

Micron Sending Out $550 Million For DRAM J-V (MU)

Micron Technology, Inc. (NYSE: MU) has entered into a joint venture today with Nanya Technology Corporation.  This new JV will be called MeiYa Technology Corporation. 

This is not an easy one to figure out for the end game because this is a DRAM venture, and that business has become a commodity business that is very difficult to keep making steady profits in.  As part of the JV, a 200 millimeter Nanya facility will be upgraded to the 300 millimeter technology and production is expected to come online in 2009.

Here is why this is hard to get: each will commit $550 million in cash by the end of 2009. The problem is that Micron is now expected to lose money not just in 2008, but now in 2009 as well.  Of course that doesn't necessarily mean that the company won't generate cash later on in that time.  The issue is that Micron needs its cash to get through the next eighteen months to two years.  Unless this is going to allow Micron to unload some of its plants to an OEM or to a foreign manufacturer, this just looks like another round of "more of the same" and that strategy has not been working for the company.  How long is the pay off time for a new factory, and will that pay off time work the same in a J-V?

We noted Micron as one of the turnarounds that was just seeming to be unable to turn around. Wall Street has been under the impression that the company needs to liquidating certain parts of its operations.  Staying negative on a business after it has already lost half of its value in a traditionally cyclical business that can ultimately get its act together is never an easy call. 

Our first instinct here is to call this the wrong direction if it isn't to close other capacity in the allotted time.  We'll find out in time if this works, but longer-term shareholders that have been in the company for a long time may feel like it is running out of time.  The flip-side to the argument is that this shows Micron going on the offensive and not just trying to hit a single here.  Our issue is that the company so far hasn't been able to make that work out in its favor, and even the higher-end DRAM operations are considered a commodity business that is hard to make consistent profits in.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other key financings, secondary offerings, IPO's, and other special situation previews.

Jon C. Ogg
April 21, 2008

AMD.. Bad, But.... (AMD, INTC)

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) is somehow managing to hang in there, despite waves of bad internal news.  The number two processor company said its first quarter losses narrowed to $358 million, but its sales across all business segments were slower than the company had expected.  Its EPS loss was -$0.59 (after a $0.08 charge) and revenues were up 22% to $1.51 Billion.  Analysts were expecting -$0.51 EPS on $1.5 Billion in revenues.  The gross margins were 42%, down from 44% the prior quarter and up from 28% in Q1-2007.

Shares have been acting as though the worse has been seen at the company as far as the stock is concerned, but many problems really persist.  Its CTO walked out the door, and Hector Ruiz is still hanging on.

Shares closed up almost 2% at $6.19 today, and shares are up 1.4% at $6,.28 in after-hours.  The 52-week trading range is $5.31 to $16.19.

Jon Ogg is a producer and editor of the Special Situation newsletter and the "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter for 247Wallst.com.

Intel Gets Initial Cheer (INTC)

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) posted earnings after the close, and Wall Street is cheering the results so far.  It just posted $0.25 EPS on some $9.67 Billion in revenues.  First Call estimates were $0.25 on non-GAAP EPS on revenues of $9.63 Billion.

Gross margins for last quarter were 53.8%.  Total microprocessor units were lower sequentially with an average sale price approximately flat, and it spent $2.5 billion to repurchase 122 million shares of its common stock.  NAND revenue was flat as significant price declines offset unit growth.

Interestingly enough, the company noted a strengthening core business and solid global market environment on healthy demand for processors and chipsets across all segments.  It also remains optimistic about growth opportunities.

The chip and processor giant also put earnings guidance at $9 to $9.6 Billion in revenues and sees 56% margins.  Estimates for the coming quarter are $0.28 EPS on $9.28 Billion in revenues.  For 2008 the chip giant put guidance of 57% gross margin, plus or minus a few points.

What the street is liking is the positive core business comments coming out of the company.  As long as business is hanging in there, then Wall Street isn't likely to punish it too much further.

Shares closed up 1% at $20.91 in regular trading and shares are up over 7% at $22.50 in after-hours trading.  The 52-week trading range is $18.05 to $27.99.

Jon C. Ogg
April 15, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Intel Earnings To Dictate Trend of Tech Stocks (INTC, AMD)

After today's closing bell, we'll see earnings for Q1-2008 from Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC).  The processor and chip giant estimates from First Call are $0.25 EPS on $9.63 Billion in revenues. 

We've already been warned by Intel that Flash Memory was taking down the quarter and it would probably be a shock if the estimates ahead from the company were put conservatively.  Over the last 3-months, analysts have taken down numbers across the board for Q1, Q2, Q3, 2008 and even 2009.

Next quarter estimates are $0.28 EPS on $9.23 Billion in revenues, and Fiscal-2008 estimates are $1.29 EPS on just over $39.7 Billion in revenues.

Options traders appear to be braced for a move of up to $0.69 to $0.76 on on a static basis as of noon.  Analysts have a price target of just over $26.00 on the chip giant.  Intel has already hiked its dividend.

Intel has traded under its 200-day moving average since the start of 2008, and that level on last look was $23.75.  But it has been using the 50-day moving average as a pivot level, and that was listed as $20.86 on last look.  With shares up less than 0.5% at $20.78 currently, that 50-day moving average may be a critical juncture ahead.

While this report will likely translate directly into major revisions for Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), we have a fresh warning and layoffs already announced from AMD ahead of its earnings in just two day; AMD also saw its CTO leave the company.  Intel earnings and guidance may set the trend for companies up and down the entire PC and tech infrastructure line from PC's to software to peripherals to chips to storage to internals.

Jon C. Ogg
April 15, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Earnings War: Intel Versus AMD.. Q1 2008 (INTC, AMD, NVDA)

This week, we will have the real start of the earnings onslaught for Q1-2008 earnings season.  We compiled many estimates Friday evening to see which pairs of companies and which actual leaders were coming out with earnings.  A real caveat we'd make right now is that the screw up on earnings from everyones favorite conglomerate last Friday there are going to be major analyst downward revisions in many sectors this week right ahead of the actual reports.

On Tuesday afternoon, we’ll get to see earnings out of Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC). The estimates for the processor and chip giant from First Call are $0.25 EPS on $9.63 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.28 EPS on $9.25 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Dec-2008 are $1.29 EPS on $39.8 billion in revenues.

We'd notes that Intel's lowered guidance from recent weeks was noted mostly on its flash memory operations.  Analysts have an average price target north of $26.00.  Intel Corp.’s 52-week trading range is $18.05 to $27.99.

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) is also set to report earnings this week, with the number two processor company giving up its numbers on Thursday after the close.  First and foremost, AMD did warn even more recently than Intel and it announced roughly a 10% workforce cut.

First Call estimates from AMD are -$0.51 EPS on revenues of $1.5 Billion, although those estimates have come down steadily from analysts.  For the next quarter, analysts are looking for -$0.46 EPS also on $1.5 Billion in revenues.  For Fiscal-2008, it is expected to see -$1.36 EPS on $6.43 Billion, and now analysts expect wide losses in 2009 as well at -$0.64 on $7.07 Billion in revenues.

AMD's 52-week trading range is $5.31 to $16.19, and there's probably no point in mentioning the old $30.00+ highs before that.  The average analyst price target is $almost $8.40 on AMD.  Analysts may hope to look at ATI as being its bright spot, and one that may have a jump on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) in graphics chipsets for 2008, and it might even be worth considering that old analysis showing the possibilities of an NVIDIA-AMD tie-up that AmTech outlined as a possibility. Lastly, it wasn't exactly all that well regarded that AMD lost its Chief Technology Officer. Can you say turmoil?

Recently, there was talk of Intel is going to be able to launch more core-processors than its troubled rival.
Intel was recently noted as having some of its China ventures that could see IPO's.  Intel did recently hike its dividends.

Jon C. Ogg
April 13, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Intel Capital's New China Ventures Could See IPO's (INTC)

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) has announced full details for its venture capital arm's Intel Capital global venture investment activities in China with the launch of a second China investment fund.   The Intel Capital China Technology Fund II is a new US$500 million fund that will invest in wireless broadband, tech, media, telecom, and clean tech ventures that it believes will complement and expand Intel's corporate initiatives and technology efforts in China.

Nvidia (NVDA) Falls Off The Map

Over the last three months, shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) have dropped almost 40%. Chipmakers AMD (NYSE: AMD) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) have traded fairly flat over the same period.

AMD has been heavily punished over the last two years, so it makes some sense that its shares are not falling, but Nvidia's business has a history of has doing well because it operates in the highly profitable graphics chip segment of the market. Slowing PC sales have undermined all of the industry's suppliers, but the fall in NVDA shares is breathtaking.

According to the AP,  over the last quarter Nvidia's shares were the most volatile in the S&P 500 information technology sector, 70% more volatile than the average stock in the segment.

Nvidia was hit by an old truck know as expenses. While net income was up 57% in its last quarter and sales moved up above expectations, according to MarketWatch expenses rose 16%. The company forecast another jump in costs in the current quarter.  No one was surprised when the CFO left the company.

The economy is bad enough now that companies with any increase in costs above expectations are likely to be torn down by Wall St. even those going through incredible growth spurts.

If Nvidia does not show a marked improvement in cost control in the next quarter, it will be a very long one for its shareholders.

Douglas A. McIntyre

MEMC Warning (WFR)

MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) is seeing shares spanked this morning.  The company has issued downward guidance with Q1 revenues of about $500 million.  The problem is that previous guidance was $560 million and First Call was at $559.2 million.  It also sees Q1 gross margins of approx 52%, compared to prior guidance of about 54.8%.

The company experienced an accelerated buildup of chemical deposits inside the new expansion unit at its Pasadena, Texas facility on multiple occasions, and each instance required several days of downtime for maintenance to clean and re-stabilize the unit.  The utilization of the Pasadena facility was about 20% lower than Q4 and resulted in much lower than anticipated output.

Despite a softening economy and despite it being a materials supplier for semiconductors, this has become such a go-to supplier stock for solar cells materials that this much downside isn't accepted by traders.

Shares closed at $76.39 yesterday, and they are trading down 10% in pre-market trading at $68.75 pre-market.  Its 52-week trading range is $49.70 to $96.08.

Jon C. Ogg
April 3, 2008

AMD (AMD) Takes On More Water

AMD (NYSE: AMD) is trading off today and is not much above its 52-week low. The reason may be a note out of JP Morgan picked up at Barron's. The analysis sees AMD missing its guidance and revises down the bank's estimates for EPS.

No one should be surprised. The company has not been talking up its quarter. AMD still issues fairly worthless press releases almost every day, but CEO Hector de J. Ruiz has not been very visible.

If AMD misses the first quarter and guidance is poor, the stock could slide to under $4. At that point, the company might even get itself sold to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) or another company that would like a toe-hold in the x86 market.

Douglas A. McIntyre

AMD's (AMD) New Chip Needs Dentures

AMD (AMD) has been bragging that it will introduce a new high-end chip for desk-top computers. It will make PCs run faster, especially for hungry video and gaming applications. The chip, Phenom, is about to hit the market.

Unfortunately, the competing product from Intel (INTC) has more power and a head start in the market. According to The Wall Street Journal "Intel, which packages dual-processor chips together for its quad-core products, still has bragging rights at the top end of the enthusiast market."

AMD would be fine if it did not have a larger competitor with huge operating income, a better balance sheet, a bigger sales force, more customers, and better R&D. If wishes were horses all the beggars would ride.

Less than two years ago, AMD was a $35 stock. It now trades at just over $6. It made an ill-advised buy-out of graphics chip company ATI and took its debt up to $5 billion in the process. More important, it has not kept pace with innovations from Intel.

It may well be that AMD is simply a company which cannot be fixed.

Douglas A. McIntyre

It's Time For Micron To Consider More Options (MU)

As Micron Technology Inc. (NYSE: MU) has briefly breached its 52-week low again today, this company needs some serious pressure put on it.  The DRAM giant briefly saw its share price hit $5.43 today, and that was under its $5.47 lows over the last year.  The only good news is that shares have recovered slightly back above the 52-week low.

What is interesting here is that this turnaround just won't turn.  A bear market and tech spending slowdown is something that many CEO's cannot get around that easily.  But for the last eight or nine months this went from being merely a range-bound stock to a poor performer.  Part of the issue here is the space. 

How would you like to be a DRAM maker or even a Flash maker right now.  This is a commodity stock now, with the only difference being that DRAM prices never trend upwards and stay that way.  There are just too many manufacturers in the space.  Here were two analyst takes on Micron back when the stock was more than $1.00 higher just last month.

We have called this a turnaround that just wouldn't turn around before, and their situation is going from bad to worse to dismal.  If memory serves correctly, it was looking for a long-term plan in the turnaround.  Micron needs to look at its financial books, start comparing its assets and liabilities, and start looking at its share price and market cap.  If it is thinking about trying to do any more acquisitions, it should think again.

If the company waits for the long-term plans to come into play it may burn through too much cash and put itself at further risk on an ongoing basis.  It sure looks like it's time to do a one-time dividend this year while taxes are low, review some of those units that could be sold off, and maybe even start trying to find buyers for some plants and land.  We have seen rumors and reports on this before, but they may have been based on hope more than on meat.  That isn't going to do anything for shareholders who are long and wrong from $10.00 or $15.00, but it may at least stabilize this DRAM version of the Bataan Death March.

Unless these DRAM firms and Flash memory firms figure out a way to stabilize chip prices then it's a wonder why anyone would want to stay in that business or get into that business.

Jon C. Ogg
March 26, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Texas Instruments Takes a Downgrade (TXN)

Shares of Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) are trading lower this morning.  The culprit is a downgrade out of American Technology Research.  Analyst Doug Freedman has cut the chip maker from a Buy rating down to Neutral as the company's wireless exposure should keep its P/E multiple from expanding in the face of perceived market share loss in the wireless sector and uncertain demand in 3G handsets. 

Interestingly enough, Freeman kept his earnings target fopr 2008 at $1.84 EPS.  That is still under First Call targets of $1.97 for 2008 EPS.  AmTech's $28.00 price target reflects a 14-times 2008 earnings, and it sees a year over year drop of 1.6%.

Freedman also notes that it isn't a bad situation in his report: "Our downgrade should not be viewed as a lack of confidence in the TXN management team, which we continue to view as one of the best in the industry. However, we are looking to bring our rating in-line with our near-term expectations and better reflect ongoing investor concerns. If we could identify a positive catalyst to turn investor sentiment, we would be out defending a longer term view given the recent compressed valuation."

So far shares of Texas Instruments are down about 0.4% at $28.00.  This morning's intraday low is $27.73 and the 52-week trading range is $27.51 to $39.63.

Jon C. Ogg
March 20, 2008

Intel Juices Dividends (INTC)

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) has just announced that it is hiking its quarterly dividend on common stock.  The $0.1275 per share dividend will now be a higher rate of $0.14 per quarter.

At a $21.08 close yesterday, the dividend yield now looks to be roughly 3% on an annual basis.  This dividend will be paid on June 1, 2008 to holders of record as of May 7, 2008.

Jon C. Ogg
March 20, 2008

AMD (AMD) May Be Cutting More Staff

The Inquirer is reporting that AMD (NYSE: AMD) is cutting 5% more of its staff.

This may be an indication that the chip company will miss its numbers for the first quarter. AMD has $5 billion in debt and has taken huge write-offs for its purchase of graphics chip company ATI. Without strong cash flow making debt service payments could become impossible. In the current environment, refinancing debt could be tough.

Shares in AMD are at $6.15. Two years ago they were above $36.

If the news about AMD is correct, the stock is likely to fall much lower. It is hard to imagine how CEO Hector Ruiz keeps his job.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Intel (INTC) Takes Another Dig At AMD (AMD)

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is not satisfied with its 75% to 80% share of the PC and server markets. It is about to launch a new, more powerful set of chips, presumably to take more business from AMD (NYSE: AMC) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA).

Yesterday Intel gave "new details of plans to introduce chips that pack four, six, eight or more electronic brains on a piece of silicon to boost calculating performance," according to The Wall Street Journal.

Intel's stock is off under 20% during the last six months. Shares of its two rivals are down over 40%. The big company clearly plans to use its superior cash flow to fund R&D and put more hurt on the competition.

Douglas A. McIntyre

AmTech Notes PC Seasonality & Memory Oversupply (INTC, AMD, NVDA, MU, QI)

Doug Freedman at American Technology Research has issued a call in the PC and memory sector this morning.  The firm notes that the March quarter is tracking in-line with normal seasonality for most parts of the technology and hardware supply chain.

Channel checks suggest that Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) server parts are being well-received and selling well into a market absent a competitive part.  AmTech also noted that continued upside to dual processor configurations have been cited.  Intel may have offset strong high-end server and notebook sales with a slightly more aggressive promotion in retail.  As far as Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), the ATI data points are tracking positive, in-line with expectations, with AMD chipsets and drivers for ATI cards gaining traction with low-end enthusiasts and more mainstream markets.

Freedman also noted that notebook checks are in-line with expectations and seasonality for the most part. The first half of March DRAM pricing continued to show strength, and AmTech expects a downturn in second-half contract pricing in-line with the recent trend in spot prices and continued pressure on NAND ASPs.

While some channel checks have reported weakening consumer demand, AmTech noted that it cannot say it is outside of normal buying patterns.  It also noted that large OEMs have gained against smaller tier two and tier three suppliers.

Freedman notes, "While general sentiment has been negative, not-withstanding this week’s rally, we believe the market normally misinterprets seasonally weak periods as evidence of protracted downturns. We do not see evidence to support this thesis yet with generally healthy channel inventories supporting distributor flexibility and re-order rates."

American Tecnology Research has reiterated its BUY ratings on Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) and on Micron Tech (NYSE: MU).  It is also maintaining its NEUTRAL ratings on both NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Qimonda AG (NYSE: QI).

Jon C. Ogg
March 13, 2008

AMD (AMD) Needs Intel (INTC) EU Case To Save Its Skin

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) management and lawyers are in Europe talking with EU officials about whether the big chip company violated anti-trust laws in the region.

According to The Wall Street Journal "The EU filed preliminary charges against Intel in July, alleging the company offered rebates to customers only if they didn't use AMD products." Officials want to know whether Intel came by its 80% market share in the PC and server markets by playing fair or by using dirty tricks to keep customers away from AMD.

The case is much more important to AMD (NYSE: AMD) than it is to Intel. As EU dealings with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) have shown, a large company can survive sanctions from the body, even penalties, and continue to do business successfully. AMD, on the other hand, is losing share. If it can get the locals to go along with its way of thinking, that Intel executives are thugs and mobsters, the smaller chip company might get a little wiggle room to sell more of its products.

AMD is weighed down with $5 billion in debt and recently took a huge write-off for its ill-advised buy-out of graphics chip company ATI. The company's shares are down from $35 less than two years ago to $6.43. By most accounts the majority of Intel products beat comparable products from AMD based on performance and energy efficiency. That could have something to do with AMD's share price fall

The EU may not care if Intel has a better set of chips. AMD may prevail. For the sake of its shareholders, it had better.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Can Texas Instruments Mid-Quarter Update Rescue Chip Stocks? (TXN)

Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) is set to report its mid-quarter update on Monday.  What is expected to be a short press release will come after the close.  The chip giant issued guidance with last quarter's earnings as follows:

• Total TI revenues of $3.27 billion to $3.55 billion;
• Semiconductor revenues $3.20 billion to $3.46 billion;
• Education Tech revenues, $70 million to $90 million.
• EPS in the range of $0.43 to $0.49.

On last look, First Call showed estimates of $0.46 EPS on $3.4 Billion in revenues.  If you use options trading for an indicator, the current month contract did get a bit more active on Friday and it appears that options are pricing in a move of $0.55 to $0.80 in either direction.

The company did just give an update last week at a Morgan Stanley conference so conventional wisdom would at least lend credence to the company not announcing the world become much uglier in the last few days.

Shares closed up marginally Friday at $29.30, and shares are at the bottom of a trading range of $28.00 to $39.63 seen over the last 52-weeks.

Jon C. Ogg
March 8, 2008

View on Intel: Maturity Versus Growth (INTC)

After the first day of the Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) analyst day, we have been looking through many opinion pieces and reports.  There is one standout report that addresses growth and value, without being overly optimistic nor overly negative.

American Technology Research's Doug Freedman has an interesting call.  While AmTech notes the growth initiatives and strong execution opportunities, Freedman ponders how long it will be before Intel has matured.  He notes, "It may take 5-7 years, but management appears unwilling to concede that the tech market is mature. We also question if any new opportunity could ever rival the core IA CPU business and help grow revenue to $80B in 3-5 years. The core PC is mature and highly cyclical, and the new consumer-oriented initiatives could also mature very quickly."

Freedman also notes that analyst sentiment is very negative in terms of growth success.  If the report sounds negative by the mere question of maturity versus growth, it isn't.  Freedman noted the accelerating share repurchases as positive, a quick addressing of not allowing NAND woes to drag the entire company, Silverthorn for ultra-mobile computing, and strong volume and average selling prices.

While this report questions growth versus maturity, that is merely for the long-haul.  Freedman has reiterated AmTech's BUY rating with a $27.00 price target.  That is almost $1.00 higher than the average target from analysts on Wall Street, and with shares right at $20.00 it represents a potential gain of roughly 35% from current prices.  Recently AmTech did remove this from its FOCUS LIST, but maintained that Buy rating before today's report.

We would note that we also recently noted that if you take the NAND weakness at face value, it actually implied that Intel's core business is holding up and the negativity may be too overdone.  Shares would have to run 40% before they took out a recent 52-week high at $27.99.  We have also questioned whether or not it would have to warn, but that appears to be already baked in on the recent news.  At current prices, Intel trades at roughly 15-times fiscal 2008 earnings estimates and about 12.9-times 2009 earnings estimates.

Jon C. Ogg
March 6, 2008

Intel (INTC) Will Pursue Four New Markets

The PC business is not enough for Intel (NASDAQ: INTC). It want to get into four more businesses according to The InQuirer. The include low-cost PCs, mobile internet devices, consumer electronics, and embedded systems. The big chip company thinks each of these is a $10 billion market.

Whether this will help the company offset falling NAND flash memory prices, at least short-term, is unlikely.

The company's shares did take a tick up yesterday, but at just over $20, they are still near a 52-week low.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Applied Materials Solar Strategy Paying Off (AMAT, CY, SPWR)

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) saw a major run on Tuesday.  Despite a warning out of Intel the night before, the company is diversifying out of chip cap-ex and equipment dominance into a strategy of being a solar play.  This morning the semiconductor equipment maker disclosed in an SEC Filing a $1.9 Billion solar equipment sales agreement.  This is technically being listed as a total purchase price for the equipment and related services outside of post-warranty services that will be provided by Applied materials for approximately $1.9 Billion.

The sales agreements are with a private non-US corporation where it will supply equipment and installation and warranty services for several solar factories being constructed by the buyer. These factories will feature Applied SunFab equipment that will collectively produce an annual expected output of solar PV modules capable of generating electricity on a "gigawatt scale."

We have covered a $475 million acquisition made last year that was going to allow Applied Materials to get away from its chip cap-ex strategy into also being one of the solar leaders in a field that is booming.  On what was a negative day on Wall Street, shares closed up 7.6% to $20.32, and that is now toward the upper-end of the $16.13 to $23.00 trading range over the last 52-weeks.  Applied Materials' market cap is $27.8 Billion and its fiscal October-2007 revenues were $9.734 Billion. 

If you have paid attention to Cypress Semiconductor (NYSE: CY) and its partial spin-off of SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) you will understand that it did show an incredible return for a while.  While Cypress has been cut in half over the last year, it did literally move almost 300% from bottom to top before giving back its gains.

Who knows, maybe we'll get a spin-off of Applied SunFab down the road.

Jon C. Ogg
March 4, 2008

Intel Warning Worse For Flash Memory Makers Than For Intel (INTC, SPSN, SNDK, MU)

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) came out last night and warned of lower margins.  The culprit was only listed as lower than expected NAND flash memory chip prices.  So tonight Intel now said it is looking for 54% margins, plus or minus 1%.  Its previous guidance was 56%, plus or minus 1%.  The interesting part is that Intel said all other expectations are consistent with the prior guidance given with its last outlook.

Shares are indicated down about 3% in early market trading this morning, which is far better than the situation would be if Intel had warned about processor sales.  We would note that this had recently been downgraded at Goldman Sachs and at AmTech.  We also just last week were pondering if Intel would have to lower its guidance again.    

As this looks and feels like a bear market more and more each day, it is impossible to try to say that there is good news here.  But if you break this down and if you take the reason offered at face value for this being tied only to flash memory, then you might be able to make the argument that its core operations are at least in good shape.
There wasn't any super-fishy activity in its near-month options trading, so this news didn't look spring loaded in a market that has had a hard time pricing in any bad headlines.

As the news was specific to NAND flash memory chips, it is hitting those flash memory stocks the worst of the others.  SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK) is perhaps the pure-play for flash memory stocks, and its shares are putting in new 52-week lows.  Its trading range over the last year was $23.40 to $59.75.  Spansion Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSN) is another go-to stock in flash memory, and its shares traded down almost 3% in after-hours trading last night. Unfortunately, it has had a poor year with its 52-week trading being $2.69 to $12.83.  This news is not going to bode well for a turnaround at Micron Tech (NYSE: MU) that just won't turn around, although maybe it will force the company to more rapidly pursue some of the active divesting strategies we have laid out.  Its shares are indicated down more than 1.5% this morning.

Intel shares are down about 3% at $19.38, still above that $18.05 low for the last 52-weeks.  If this was news about weak processor sales that would be looking much worse.

Jon C. Ogg
March 4, 2008

Intel (INTC) Grounds Out

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) sent the tech world and stock market more news which they did not need. The company cut its gross margin estimates. According to the company "Intel Corporation today lowered its first-quarter gross margin forecast to 54 percent, plus or minus a point, as compared to the previous forecast of 56 percent, plus or minus a couple of points, due to lower than expected prices for NAND flash memory chips."

Intel closed at $20 and dropped to $19.50 after hours. It may test its 52-week low of $18.05 tomorrow.

Wall St. should expect a bigger sell-off in Intel's smaller rival AMD (NYSE: AMD). It can't afford to lose any more margins points. AMD dropped over 6% today. Their shareholders must have heard footsteps.

Douglas A. McIntyre

KLA-Tencor Loses CFO (KLAC)

KLA-Tencor Corporation (Nasdaq:KLAC) has announced that Jeffrey Hall, its CFO, will resign effective March 31, 2008.  Normally we look further into CFO resignations since they are the final ones who "sign off on the books" but this reasoning has been disclosed as "to pursue an opportunity closer to his mid-western hometown."

The board of directors has also appointed John Kispert, KLA-Tencor's president and chief operating officer, as the interim chief financial officer, effective March 31, 2008. Kispert will also retain his duties as president and chief operating officer. It also appointed Virendra Kirloskar, its vice president and corporate controller of KLA-Tencor, as chief accounting officer, effective March 31, 2008.

Besides an obvious slowing chip market, this doesn't look like anything ominous that would need to be thoroughly questioned.  It looks like he joining Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) as its CFO.  Shares closed down 0.9% at $41.63 in normal trading, and shares are down almost 1% more at $41.22 in after-hours trading.  KLA's 52-week trading range is $39.86 to $62.67.

Jon C. Ogg
March 3, 2008

Intel's (INTC) Small Chips May Have No Market

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is introducing new tiny chips aimed at the mobile computing market. According to The Wall Street Journal the are "designed to be the calculating engine for pocket-sized gadgets that Intel calls MIDs, for mobile Internet devices."

Intel's small chips may have a big problem. They may not have much of a market.

Next-generation smartphones and the RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) Blackberry are already the equivalent of modest computers which can be put into pockets or purses. As Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and other handset companies make more powerful products the need for another "intelligent device" is quickly going away. Chip companies which operate in the field of cell products, especially Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM), Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) are not likely to walk off the field simply because Intel has a new chip.

Intel has tried to get into chips for home entertainment, WiMax, and a series of other "new" products. It may want to stick with PCs and servers.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Chip Stocks Brace For Marvell & National Semi Earnings (NSM, MRVL)

By now, we've seen most major tech earnings and we've already seen most major chip earnings.  If it was a movie, the last earnings and guidance would be called "The Poor and the Fair" or something of the like.  On Thursday afternoon we'll get to see two more key semiconductor earnings.  Late this coming week, we'll see earnings out of both Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) and National Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE: NSM).

On Thursday afternoon we’ll get to see earnings out of Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL). The estimates for the semiconductor company from First Call are $0.11 EPS on $782.36 million in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.13 EPS on $764.99 million in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Jan-2009 are $0.69 EPS on $3.32 billion in revenues.  Analysts have an average price target north of $17.00, well down from the old highs.  One thing we would like to note was that over the last two weeks there had been some very unusual stock options activity.  One rumor pointed to earnings, and one to a possible buyout.  Until news is news rather than hearsay, we'll treat it lightly until the facts are out.  Marvell Technology Group’s 52-week trading range is $9.77 to $20.84.  Marvell has some 32.8 million shares in the short interest, and at the lower rungs of the trading range this one has a potential of making a major move if it can ever show any good news.

Also, on Thursday afternoon we’ll get to see earnings out of National Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE: NSM). The estimates for the semiconductor company from First Call are $457.42 million in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $472.45 million in revenues. Estimates for fiscal May-2008 are $1.9 billion in revenues.  We had some real discrepancies on the earnings numbers, so we'll make an update before the Thursday information.  Analysts have an average price target north of $22.00, well down from the old highs.  National Semiconductor’s 52-week trading range is $16.73 to $29.69.  Traders still sometimes try to tie National Semi as a key chip stock that affects many others, although we think those days are close to a decade ago.

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2008

Will Intel Have To Lower Guidance Again? (INTC)

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is seeing shares drop some 2% in early trading after JPMorgan trimmed estimates on the chip and processor giant.  The brokerage report showed an under-trend pattern in its channel checks on weaker than expected microprocessor orders.  This also has all the earmarks tech investors won't like hearing as this notes excess microprocessor inventories AND decelerating demand for PC's.  Furthermore, it also notes that for the giant to meet its mid-point of guidance that it will have to see strong sales in March.

JPMorgan maintained its Neutral rating on the stock, but it has lowered estimates for both 2008 and 2009.  If JPMorgan is right, and we stress IF, then this has all the earmarks of an earnings warning possibly coming after next week.  Its guidance with last earnings was already weaker than Wall Street wanted to hear, and a second 'lowering of targets' probably wouldn't see the warmest reception from a cold neighborhood.

Goldman Sachs recently took it off the Conviction Buy List, and AmTech also removed it from the Focus List.

The recent guidance out of Best Buy didn't exactly leave the feeling that this is the best PC market in the world, although H-P didn't throw out the classic signs that the PC market is heading south.   Despite a 28% drop from highs on Intel, the case for tech staying slower is starting to overshadow the cheap relative valuations.

Jon C. Ogg
February 27, 2008

Intel (INTC) Looks At Six-Core Chip

Now that Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has the launch of its quad-care chips behind it, the company is looking at putting out a six-core chip product, perhaps early as next quarter. According to The Inquirer, the new product would further help Intel battle AMD (NYSE: AMD) which has had trouble getting its quad-core Barcelona chip to market.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Intel Goes More After AMD Turf (INTC, AMD)

The WSJ has reported that Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is completing a new processor called Diamondville that is for computers of $250 and under.  The size of this processor is tiny at a whopping 25 square millimeters.

We do not have any pricing plans for how much, actually how little, these new processors will cost.  If this is for sub-$250 PC's and whatever future geared down net devices we end up using then it can't be too costly.

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) looks like it is being fought on all sides.  AMD is one we frequently cover in our weekly "10 stocks under $10" newsletter.  We noted yesterday how AmTech had laid out the possibilities of the ailing company being acquired.  Depending on how aggressive Intel gets for lower-end PC's, the value there seems to revolve more and more around the point that AMD's only real value is that it keeps Intel from being classified as a true monopoly.

Jon C. Ogg
February 21, 2008

Options Traders Spark Marvell Interest (MRVL)

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) was the subject of a lot of buzz today.  There wasn't any news out on it, but there were enough options that traded today that would account for almost 5 million shares on a leveraged basis.

We asked around after several inquiries came in throughout the day, and most of the inquiries seemed to revolve around the options trading rather than anything steadfast that sounded like there was an an imminent development.  One source noted to me some "chatter" that Tokyo Electron was the name he heard that may have an interest.  The truth is that there will be know way to know if Marvell is really in play or not without knowing everything management is doing currently.  Because of it being perceived as near-fabless model, that also narrows the field.

34,933 contracts traded for the March-2008 $10 Calls, and the open interest was merely 2,188 contracts.  In the March $12.50 Calls, there were 12,517 contracts that traded hands but the open interest on that was already 30,931 contracts.

Earnings are scheduled for March 6, 2008, so it is too early for traders to start playing this in hopes that there is some earnings blowout coming.  Shares briefly traded under $10.00 recently, but they have also been cut in half over the last year.  To make things worse, shares are down from over $30.00 just two years ago.

Shares rose almost 5% today to $10.99 on above average trading volume.  On last look shares were up about another 2% to $11.23 and had traded some 300,000 shares in after-hours activity.

Jon C. Ogg
February 20, 2008

AmTech Outlines Possibilities of NVIDIA/AMD Merger (NVDA, AMD)

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) are trading up 4% today at $6.78 in early morning trading.  The company is the beneficiary of another research note out of Doug Freedman at American Technology Research, who has outlined potential scenarios for the possibilities of NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) acquiring AMD. 

For starters, he notes that the positives outweigh the negatives as both would benefit from a business combination.  Freedman notes that other suitors are possible but NVIDIA would likely be the most motivated here.  This even notes that the combined company could be what is needed to move beyond a 20% CPU company.

AmTech does address antitrust concerns over the graphics chipsets in combining NVIDIA and ATI, mainly by noting that Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has very little friends in regulatory circles (intel recently disclosed a New York AG inquiry).  This also addresses NVIDIA's fabless model as another hurdle, but it notes that it believes AMD has explored pursuing a fab-lite model.

This even shows some pro forma results for the combined companies.  For 2008, it would expect $11.336 Billion in revenues with gross profit margin of 45%, $1.048 Billion operating income and $2.47 Billion in EBITDA.  For 2009, it also assumes that 45% gross profit margin and would have a combined $12,527 Billion in revenues, $1.482 Billion in operating income, and EBITDA of $2.68 Billion.

AmTech has maintained a neutral rating on NVIDIA and maintained its Buy rating on AMD.  The company still needs to get Hector Ruiz out of the way first, although that is becoming redundant.

Jon C. Ogg
February 20, 2008

A Fresh Nvidia (NVDA) Buys AMD (AMD) Rumor

Another round of rumors has hit the media about Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) buying AMD (NYSE: AMD). Barron's quotes American Technology Research as saying a deal is possible. The reasoning seems simple enough. “The Intel/AMD road-map of integration of the CPU/GPU could pose a risk to Nvidia, and buying AMD propels Nvidia into a formidable competitor for Intel with the upside coming from Huang’s ability to re-architect AMD’s design.”

Dream on. Nvidia has a market cap of just under $15 billion. Its stock is down about 25% this year. Buying a loser like AMD would push its price so low that shareholders would storm the company's headquarters. Nvidia is about to announce earnings. A weak forecast could further eviscerate the shares.

In its last quarter, NVDA has operating income of $248 million on revenue of $1.116 billion. The company had a gross margin of 46% in that period. NVDA has a clean balance sheet with over $1 billion in cash.

Over at AMD the company sports a market cap of $3.8 billion, which makes a deal by Nvidia affordable. That is until Wall St. looks at the $5 billion in long-term debt on the balance sheet. AMD had revenue of $1.77 billion and an operating breakeven before write-offs of $1.6 billion for impaired assets.

Nvidia shareholders have a nice company. AMD is a boat anchor.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Applied Materials Beats Lowered Estimates; No Guidance (AMAT)

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) has just posted earnings of $0.25 EPS non-GAAP (GAAP $0.19 EPS) on $2.09 Billion in revenues; First Call had estimates pegged at $0.20 non-GAAP EPS on $2.01 Billion revenues.  While that number is 4% above its estimates on revenues, that is down about 8% year over year.

Margins were slightly above estimates but also eroded for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 to 44.8%, down from 46.7% for the first quarter of fiscal 2007.  New orders were listed as $2.5 Billion.  Applied already announced 1,000 layoffs and a reorganization in January, So this was just catching up to the news.  Unfortunately, the company didn't give guidance so this is an incomplete story until that is out.

Applied closed down almost 2% at $18.07 and it is trading up almost 3% at $18.55 in after-hours trading.

Jon C. Ogg
February 12, 2008

Earnings Preview: Applied Materials (AMAT)

On Tuesday afternoon, we’ll get to see earnings out of Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT). The estimates from First Call for the semiconductor manufacturer $2.01 billion in revenues.  Estimates for fiscal October 2008 are $8.75 billion in revenues.

Analysts have an average price target north of $23.  Based upon static pricing, options are currently factoring in a price move of $0.57 to $0.66 in either direction.  That number will likely change by Tuesday afternoon.  The 50-day moving average has been a pivot point and is currently $17.80, while the 200 day moving average is $19.49.

While Wall Street might try to hang on to this closely as one of the few key tech stocks posting earnings, by now it is hard to expect any major overperformance demands from the leader in semiconductor chip equipment players.  We have already seen chip companies give their cap-ex forecasts for 2008, and that tends to lead Applied Materials' guidance rather than Applied Materials leading the tech sector expenditure forecasts.  Maybe the company will spend more time talking up its long-term solar plans.

Applied Materials closed at $17.93 Friday and its 52-week trading range is $16.13 to $23.00.

Jon C. Ogg
February 9, 2008

Two Analyst Takes On Micron Analyst Meeting (MU)

We have been watching Micron Technology, Inc. (NYSE: MU) for quite some time.  We even listed it as a "turnaround that hadn't turned" and we have noted how the company is in a strange position because DRAM is now a commodity that is no different than gold, rice, or sugar.  The difference is that through time the prices of DRAM only seem to fluctuate on whether or not the price falls 1% each quarter or 10% each quarter.  This morning we are showing two takes from analysts that attended Micron's analyst meeting yesterday.

The first take is from Goldman Sachs, which rates Micron with a Neutral rating.  Goldman noted that while DRAM price have stabilized in recent weeks, they still think considerable oversupply is going to persist.  The firm also noted that Micron is looking for a DRAM partner to expand on its 300mm capacity.  Another issue is weak NAND fundamentals for the foreseeable future with average sale prices to be down 40% to 50% from the last quarter.  While Goldman noted Micron's de-consolidation of the image sensor operation, an IPO is not expected anytime soon.  Goldman Sachs is maintaining its Neutral rating with 2008 targets at -$1.22 EPS and 2009 targets at -$0.20 EPS.

American Technology Research has a different take.  For starters, it has a Buy rating on Micron with a $10.00 price target.  AmTech noted that Micron is lowering costs as a cent