Price Prediction: Will Costco Hit a New-High This Year?

Costco (NASDAQ:COST | COST Price Prediction) has been one of the most crowded long trades in consumer retail for years. After a choppy first half of 2026, the question is whether the warehouse giant still has room to run.

My model says yes, but only modestly. Costco traded at $945.57 as of the last close, and the 24/7 Wall St. price target for Costco is $1,041.86, implying 10.18% upside over the next 12 months. The model’s rating is buy, and confidence is high at 90%.

What the Recent Price Action Is Telling Us

Costco is up 9.96% year to date but has cooled recently, falling 4.17% over the past month after touching a 52-week high of $1,096.50. The 52-week low sits at $841.69, so shares trade in the upper half of that range.

In fiscal Q3 2026, Costco delivered EPS of $4.93 on revenue of $70.53 billion, up 11.6% year over year, with comparable sales up 9.8%, digital comps up 21.5%, and membership fee income of $1.373 billion. The worldwide renewal rate held at 89.7%.

Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead

The bull case rests on the flywheel. Membership fee income compounds above 10% annually, executive members represent 75% of net sales, and e-commerce traffic jumped 37% last quarter. Costco plans to end fiscal 2026 with roughly 940 warehouses, up from 914, and free cash flow reached $7.84 billion in fiscal 2025.

Consumer spending on food rose to $1,566.8 billion in May 2026 from $1,518.3 billion a year earlier, and Goldman Sachs calls out Costco as capturing outsized share through value offerings, operational leverage, and effective supplier negotiations. If digital growth holds above 20% and membership economics expand, our bull scenario pushes shares to $1,139.55, a 20.51% return.

What Could Go Wrong

Costco trades at a trailing P/E of 46x and forward P/E of 41x, an unforgiving multiple if growth decelerates. Management flags tariff exposure, FX headwinds, and rising healthcare and wage costs as active risks.

Recent insider activity leaned toward selling, and 30-day sentiment slipped 13.44 points. The recent PEG of 4.518 reflects heavy reinvestment in Kirkland innovation, international warehouses, and digital infrastructure. The bear scenario limits downside to $956.56, essentially flat.

How Costco Compares to Walmart and BJ’s Wholesale

Walmart (NYSE:WMT) trades at $114.95 against an implied P/E of 42x and forward EPS of $2.94, with 86% of analysts bullish and quarterly earnings growth of 19.4%. Walmart is cheaper on forward earnings than Costco but grows earnings roughly half as fast, supporting Costco’s premium.

BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE:BJ) is the closest pure-play comparison. BJ posted Q1 fiscal 2027 EPS of $1.10 on revenue of $5.66 billion with full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $4.40 to $4.60, digital comps up 28%, and a market cap of $11.88 billion. Membership fee growth of 9.9% trails Costco’s, and net income fell 4.7%. Against that field, our $1,041.86 target looks reasonable.

Costco Price Prediction 2026-2030

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,041.86 and buy rating reflect durable membership economics, accelerating digital growth, and a resilient consumer backdrop. Valuation keeps me from pounding the table.

The setup improves if Costco pulls back toward the 200-day average near $956 or delivers another double-digit comp quarter. Risk rises if the multiple pushes above 50x on decelerating traffic. Confidence remains 90%, and the target still points higher.

Here is where our model projects Costco could trade, assuming steady mid-single-digit comp growth and consistent membership expansion.

These projections assume Costco executes on warehouse expansion, membership growth, and Kirkland Signature innovation. Significant upside or downside could result from tariff policy shifts, consumer slowdown, or accelerating international rollout.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.