NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) stock is down 32% year to date (YTD), trading at $9.61 Tuesday afternoon after a mild bounce off last week’s lows. The stock is climbing 5% on the session, but it still sits far below the $15 level where NuScale stock started 2026.
The bulls can point to SMR stock’s 52-week range of $7.21 to $57.42 as evidence that a move back to $15 is well within recent trading history. The question is whether the catalysts are in place to get it there.
NuScale’s core reactor-deployment business is still pre-revenue, and the past 12 months have punished holders. NuScale shares are down 77% over the trailing year, a reminder that this remains one of the higher-volatility names in the small modular reactor (SMR) trade.
Why NuScale Stock Is Down This Year
The Q2 FY2026 earnings report set the tone. NuScale reported revenue of $75,000, down 99.1% year over year (YoY) from $8.05 million, after the Fluor (NYSE:FLR | FLR Price Prediction) engineering contract for the RoPower project wound down in late 2025 with no replacement work booked.
NuScale Power’s GAAP loss came in at -$0.13 per share, essentially in line with estimates, but the net loss widened to $47.54 million. Dilution has been the other pressure point: NuScale’s weighted-average diluted share count expanded to 364.5 million from 133.4 million a year earlier, after the company raised roughly $984.48 million in net equity proceeds during the first half.
The upside is a balance sheet with real staying power. NuScale Power finished the quarter with $1.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments, giving management room to fund supply-chain readiness while it waits for firm customer contracts.
What It Would Take to Get SMR Stock Back to $15
The recovery thesis rests on converting NuScale’s regulatory lead into firm orders and revenue. CEO John Hopkins highlighted on the Q2 2026 call that “NuScale remains the only small modular reactor company to have received design certification from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission,” and that the company has a supply chain of more than 60 specialized partners with over 30 agreements already executed.
The most watched catalyst is the potential large-scale U.S. deployment with the Tennessee Valley Authority via strategic partner ENTRA1 Energy. Hopkins assured that “the conversations we understand are progressing well. And I can tell you that when the agreement is signed, NuScale will be ready to implement.” A definitive power purchase agreement, plus movement on the six-module RoPower project at Doicești, Romania with Nuclearelectrica, could reshape investor perception.
Beyond project wins, NuScale Power stock likely needs three additional supports to retrace to $15: sustained AI and data-center power demand, supportive federal nuclear policy, and a broader sentiment recovery across the SMR trade. Investors may want to watch for evidence that the regulatory edge is translating into signed orders rather than continued dilution.
Peers and the Broader Nuclear Trade
Oklo (NYSE:OKLO), a fellow advanced-nuclear developer, is down 35% YTD. Fuel and uranium names have held up better: Centrus Energy (NYSE:LEU) is down 24% YTD, while Uranium Energy (NYSE:UEC) is down 2% YTD.
The diversification story sits with the sector ETF. The Global X Uranium ETF (NYSEARCA:URA) is up 5% YTD, with an expense ratio of 0.69%. A diversified basket of uranium and nuclear-related equities has actually gained ground while several single names posted sharp drawdowns. The URA ETF is a sector-concentrated thematic fund and unleveraged, so concentration caution still applies.
What to Watch Next
The near-term signal is any definitive TVA power purchase agreement announced through ENTRA1, followed by movement on the Romania project once the new government is seated. Either would give NuScale Power stock a fundamental catalyst to reprice.
Given that NuScale remains pre-revenue in its core deployment business and carries real execution and dilution risk, position sizing matters here. Traders can watch for whether SMR shares can hold above the mid-single digits and reclaim the $10 line before $15 becomes a serious conversation. The next scheduled catalyst is NuScale Power’s Q3 2026 report later this fall.
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